Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 4/15/14.
Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 4/15/14.
Below are charts with the total intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 4/15/14.
Below are charts of with the bullish intensity scores of the most bullish stocks on StockTwits for the week and month ended 4/15/14.
Today at the close a counter trend bounce signal was issued for Silver (SLV) from the Twitter stream. This signal comes from fairly high levels of sentiment with a four month confirming uptrend line. The short term down trend line has been broken to the upside which creates the signal. Recent signals in the precious metals space have been short lived so be nimble if you trade against the trend. Here’s a post with details of how we use Twitter and StockTwits to trade stocks.
Today at the close a consolidation warning for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) was issued from the Twitter stream. As I noted over the weekend, the signals have been coming late over the past several months as traders seem to be chasing price. The nature of the current bounce should give more clues as to the strength of the market. This signal has plenty of room to fail so I’ll be watching to see if the Twitter stream cheers the bounce or fades it.
The buy signal for Apple (AAPL) that was issued on 3/12/14 has closed. AAPL was dragged down with the rest of the market so this signal just couldn’t get any momentum from the Twitter stream.
By almost all the measures I track it’s make or break time for the market. I’m seeing a pattern in both core and ancillary indicators that has often marked lows in the market over the past few years. Each time our indicators were close to signalling an extreme warning the market promptly turned back up and resumed the rally out of the 2009 lows. Over the longer term when our indicators have reached these levels the market rallied 35% of the time and had an extended decline or choppy period 65% of the time. As you know, I can’t see the future so all we do is go with the odds. As a result, our core portfolios raised cash and/or added a hedge yesterday. Here are some highlights of things I’m seeing that makes me cautious. The ratio between near term volatility (VIX) and 3-Month volatility (VXV) is currently rising as a result of both VIX and VXV moving up. This is a condition that has only occurred a few
This past week our core market health indicators continued their recent trend. All of them except for our measures of the economy fell. Our measures of trend fell sharply and ended the week well below zero. As a result, we’re raising more cash and/or adding a larger hedge to our core portfolios. By the close today our Long/Cash portfolios allocations will be 20% long and 80% cash. Our hedged portfolio will be 60% long stocks that we believe will out perform the market in an uptrend and 40% short the S&P 500 Index (or use the ETF SH). Below is a chart of our portfolio changes over the past year. The yellow lines represent raising cash/adding hedges. The green lines represent removing hedges and adding more longs to the portfolios. As I pointed out a few weeks ago, historically our indicators deteriorating to these levels have resulted in an extended choppy market or an extended decline 65% of the time. 35% of the time these conditions marked a short term low