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End of Consolidation Warning for S&P 500

Published on April 23, 2014 by in Market Comments
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The consolidation warning for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on 4/14/14 has been closed. As I mentioned in the 4/14 post the warnings have been coming late over the past several months due to chasing and uncertainty from traders on Twitter. The 2013 theme where market seems to get right to the edge and then rallies looks like it might be continuing. A move above the recent highs would be a big positive for the market.

 
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End of Counter Trend Bounce Signal for Silver

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The counter trend bounce signal for Silver (SLV) issued on 4/14/14 has been closed. This is another recent long signal that just couldn’t get any momentum.

 
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Breadth from Twitter Stream Goes Sideways

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Over the past week breadth calculated from the Twitter stream moved sideways.  The number of stocks with the most strength increased, but so did the number of stock showing the most weakness on the Twitter stream.  This indicates that the market is starting to separate the weak from the strong.  This is different from 2013 where all stocks tended to move together and our breadth measures responded with deep dips on small down moves in the market. One thing to note is that the current dip in price has been almost as damaging to breadth as the fall to 1740 on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in early February. Breadth from StockTwits recovered sharply, but it was a result of stocks leaving the weak list rather than an increase in the number of stocks in the strong list.

 
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Chasing and Uncertainty Continue

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Over the past week the market had a good rebound. Many of the indicators I follow moved up, but didn’t recover as fast as the market. It appears as if market participants are being whipped around without much conviction. Not a lot has changed from last week. New highs are still painting a down trend, the bullish percent index is at about the same level, and our market risk indicator improved slightly. The notable changes come from the percent of stocks above their 200 day moving average and the ratio between one month volatility (VIX) and three month volatility (VXV). The percent of stocks above their 200 day moving average recovered back above 80%, however as I’ve mentioned before the headline number isn’t telling the whole story.  Over the past three weeks the market dipped less than 4%, but dragged 15% of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) below their 200 dma.  A 2% rise repaired two thirds of the damage. This tells us that a large number

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Slight Improvement in Market Health

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Over the past week our market health indicators had a slight improvement. However, the improvement isn’t keeping up with the rally in the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Overall the indicators are very weak considering the market is within a few percentage points of an all time high. All we can do is wait for clarity. I suspect we’ll see enough changes in the next few weeks that we’ll either be removing hedges or adding more. Bottom line, the market is still trying to decide what it wants to do.  As a result, we’ll wait patiently with a moderately large hedge in place. Below is a chart that highlights our core health indicator categories.    

 
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Twitter Top 10 Continues to Lag

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The Twitter Top 10 Portfolio continues to lag the market this month. It is still down 2.4% while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is essentially flat.  The stocks that are dragging down the portfolio are Himax Tech (HIMX) down over 20% and Kandi Tech (KNDI) down almost 17%.  These are two leftover momentum stocks that didn’t fall out of the portfolio at the first of the month. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings.   Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $MSFT 292 39.87 11642.04 40.04 11691.68 0.43% $HIMX 1021 11.43 11670.03 9.12 9311.52 -20.21% $GTAT 761 16.90 12860.90 16.29 12396.69 -3.61% $QCOM 148 78.53 11622.44 81.22 12020.56 3.43% $BIDU 73 149.35 10902.55 156.77 11444.21 4.97% $KNDI 687 14.08 9672.96 11.69 8031.03 -16.97% $F 724 16.13 11678.12 16.07 11634.68 -0.37% $AA 925 12.63 11682.75 13.49 12478.25 6.81% $K 183 63.77 11669.91 66.29 12131.07 3.95% $GMCR 113 102.99 11637.87 98.55 11136.15 -4.31% Cash 116.05 116.05 Totals 115155.62

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StockTwits Top 10 Follows Market

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The StockTwits Top 10 portfolio is performing in line with the market so far this month. Both the portfolio and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are basically flat from the first Friday of April.  The laggards in the portfolio are SunPower (SPWR) down 15.25%, JP Morgan (JPM) down 7.56%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down 6.98%. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings.   Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $AMD 2712 4.01 10875.12 3.73 10115.76 -6.98% $MSFT 237 39.87 9449.19 40.1 9503.70 0.58% $MU 419 22.58 9461.02 23.81 9976.39 5.45% $AA 881 12.63 11127.03 13.46 11858.26 6.57% $F 587 16.13 9468.31 16.07 9433.09 -0.37% $Z 104 91.00 9464.00 95.99 9982.96 5.48% $T 282 33.55 9461.10 36.15 10194.30 7.75% $JPM 158 59.81 9449.98 55.29 8735.82 -7.56% $GE 410 26.13 10713.30 26.72 10955.20 2.26% $SPWR 296 31.93 9451.28 27.06 8009.76 -15.25% Cash 56.56 56.56 Totals 98976.89 98821.80 -0.16%

 
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Most Bullish Stocks on Twitter

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Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 4/15/14.

 
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Most Bearish Stocks on Twitter

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Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 4/15/14.

 
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Most Active Stocks on Twitter

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Below are charts with the total intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 4/15/14.

 
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