Over the last few weeks, several of my core market health indicator categories have turned positive. However, they’re barely moving above zero and have turned down early this week. In addition, my market risk indicator isn’t showing any signs of wanting to clear. Its core indicators are showing strength, but have turned back down. The downturn is happening at both a normal resistance point to consolidate the recent rally and where it should if we’re in a bear market. This, along with my core indicators compressing near zero, is creating an inflection point that could resolve either higher or lower. This will make the next few weeks very important for the market. So far, price is merely consolidating the rally out of the December 24th lows. As long as the S&P 500 Index (SPX) can say above or near its 50 day moving average I won’t worry too much. However, a clear break of the 50 and 20 dmas would tilt the odds toward revisiting and breaking the lows. Dow Theory
On January 30th, 2019 VXZ will be discontinued. It is being replaced by VXZB. In addition to VXZ being delisted, VXX will also be delisted and replaced by VXXB. So, any of you using VXZ (like I am) will want to replace the position with VXZB before the end of next month. You can read more about it at Six Figure Investing.
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) have broken their last secondary lows. This officially puts Dow Theory in a bear market by my count. So, what does this mean for trading and investing? First, what it doesn’t mean. It doesn’t mean you move all your money from long to short. Or from long to cash. The reason for this is that Dow Theory changes of long term trend often happen just as the market is ready to make its first counter move of the new trend. In this case, it means we’re likely due for a counter trend rally. Now, on to how I use Dow Theory as a part of my investing strategy. I use it as a part of the timing when rebalancing any hedges. Since we’re now in a bear market, I’m more likely to let the profits from the hedge run a little more than my “about 15%” rule. If we were in a confirmed Dow Theory bull market I’d be
FYI, today near the close I rebalanced the volatility hedged portfolio. VXZ was up 14% and my longs were down about 9%. I sold some VXZ and bought some long positions with the profit. The portfolio is now back to 50% long and 50% VXZ.
On Wednesday, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) closed low enough that they are in the process of forming new secondary lows. A secondary low is a dip in a long term bull market that retraces between 33% and 66% of the previous rally. They last from about 3 weeks to as much as 3 months. When this current dip ends and the market rallies for more than 3 weeks we’ll have new secondary lows in place. Once that happens, those lows will be the new triggers to signal a long term bear market if they are broken to the downside. The current triggers are 23533.20 on DJIA and 7093.40 on DJTA. As long as this dip doesn’t break both of those lows we’re still in a bull market. Since we’re still in a Dow Theory bull market, this is a dip that should be bought. Yes, a dip that should be bought. Most of the methods I use to allocate money for my portfolio are
My Market Risk Indicator is signalling today. That means I add a mid term volatility hedge to the Volatility Hedged portfolio and the Long / Short hedged portfolio. The Long / Cash portfolio goes 100% to cash. The portfolio allocations are as follows: Long / Cash portfolio: 100% cash Long / Short hedged portfolio: 50% long high beta stocks and 50% long mid term volatility (or an ETF like VXZ or VIXM) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 50% long and 50% long mid term volatility (or an ETF like VXZ or VIXM) As always, use your own judgement and personal risk preferences to allocate your own portfolios. And, of course, never trade a financial instrument that you don’t understand.
Over the past week my core measures of market strength whipsawed. The category went positive last week, then went back to negative yesterday. Another thing of note is that my core measures of stock market risk fell substantially. This indicates a foundational weakening in market action (as opposed to my market risk indicator which looks for fear in the market). The core portfolio allocations have changed to the following: Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 5/7/2018) Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 70% long high beta stocks and 30% short the S&P 500 Index (or use an ETF like SH) Long / Cash portfolio: 40% long and 60% cash
Last Friday my core measures of strength went positive. That changes the portfolio allocations as follows: Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (Since 5/7/2018) Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 80% long high beta stocks and 20% short the S&P 500 Index (or use an ETF like SH) Long / Cash portfolio: 60% and 40% cash
My core measures of market quality have gone positive again. My measures of market trend and strength are lagging. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, this suggests a somewhat choppy market ahead (although I was completely wrong on the chop keeping us from new highs in the S&P 500 Index — so maybe the consolidation will happen just above new highs). With market quality going positive the portfolio allocations change as noted below. As always, use your own personal risk tolerance to structure your own portfolio. Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 5/7/2018) Long / Cash portfolio: 40% long and 60% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 70% long high beta stocks and 30% short the S&P 500 Index (or use an ETF like SH)
My market health indicators are signalling that some consolidation is likely. All of the core categories are negative with the exception of risk. When this happens it usually signals that investors are taking profits, rebalancing portfolios, and/or rotating between sectors. At this point, I don’t expect a large draw down. It’s more likely that we get some chop (maybe a month or so) before moving to new highs in the S&P 500 Index (SPX). The movement in my core indicators change the portfolio allocations as follows: Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 5/7/2018) Long / Cash portfolio: 20% long and 80% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 60% long high beta stocks and 40% short the S&P 500 Index (or use an ETF like SH) As always, use your own risk tolerance to manage your portfolio.