On Twitter @DownsideHedge we tweet all the trade signals generated by our Twitter sentiment indicator for individual stocks. We tweet long signals, when a long position is closed, short signals, and when the short is closed. In addition, we also mention any consolidation warnings and when they’re cleared as well as counter trend bounce signals and their corresponding signal that the down trend is likely resuming. For official tracking purposes we use the closing price of the day we get a signal. However, in real life we don’t rigidly follow the signals. As we’ve mentioned many times before you must use your own judgement and not blindly follow the trade signals…ours or anyone else. Today we had an example of a signal that closed a long position on Citigroup (C). However, in real life we wouldn’t sell our stock simply based on the Twitter indicator. When we posted the signal we tweeted that we’d give the trade more room. Please note the market and Citigroup were pretty close to being
As intermediate to long term investors we often ignore the daily gyrations of the market. We don’t pay a lot of attention to what happens during the day because most of the time it just doesn’t matter. In fact, a lot of times we’re flat out bored and have difficulty finding things to talk about. Our days are usually filled with waiting for weeks on end for something that changes the underlying technical structure of the market enough to change our portfolio allocations. Those changes are usually in small increments so they’re boring events too. I’ll even make the confession that I don’t have CNBC or Fox Business on TV during the day. I have Fast Money in my DVR, but only because it runs an hour after the market closes so it covers earnings announcements. Long story even longer, most of the time what we see on a daily basis is irrelevant. However, once in a while we get near an inflection point where things can get exciting very
We mentioned over the weekend that our smoothed sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 index (SPX) would create a buy signal if it moved above its current down trend line. That criteria was met today suggesting that the market should continue to move higher. We see this as confirmation of the clearing of the consolidation warning from late April. Basically, the signal in late April (blue vertical line) suggest a resumption of the uptrend after a period of consolidation (red vertical line). Please note that we weren’t encouraged by today’s price action in SPX so we’re a bit leery that this may be a whip saw. However, our intent is to show all signals even if we’re frightened by them. 😉 At the time of this writing we have a very low reading on daily sentiment for 6/12 which will turn smoothed sentiment down at the close on 6/12 if it doesn’t improve. So far this week traders aren’t predicting prices below 1597 so it appears people are looking for
Below are charts of the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 6/11/13.
Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 6/11/13.
Below is the status of the most Active stocks on Twitter. Here’s a post that explains our Stock Status Categories. The next two charts show the intensity scores for the the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 6/11/2013.
I’ve been married to the wife for 30 years today. She’s just as cute and sassy as the day we met. O.k. to be honest, cute has matured into beauty…and the sass is now better characterized as vitriol. Fortunately, I’m amused by criticism.
Our core market health indicators didn’t change much this week so we made no changes to our core portfolios. Market Positives Our market risk indicator started showing concern during the selling on Thursday, but recovered substantially after the market bounced. This is the indicator we feel is most important to watch in the current environment. Higher concern about the Fed tapering QE or Japan’s woes will almost certainly show up in market risk before we see it in any of our other indicators. As we mentioned on Monday we felt like the S&P 500 Index (SPX) should catch at 1600 due to multiple forms of support converging. The two strong days that have followed indicate there were buyers waiting for that level which creates a good line in the sand. Our measures of market quality, trend, and strength are all positive. The selling last week didn’t do any substantial damage which indicates strength in the internal structure of the market. In addition, our market stability indicator held up fairly well
Our core market health indicators held up last week even amid the selling in the market. No big changes to any of the categories which means we didn’t make any changes to our core portfolios.
It’s the first Friday of the month so today we get a new list of stocks to hold in the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio. These stocks will be held from the close today (6/7/13) until the close on July 5th, 2013. BAC, GS, F, CSCO, C, KORS, CLSN, BIDU, HD, HOT Two stocks stayed in the portfolio this month. Ford (F) and Starwood Hotels (HOT). After the market closes (or over the weekend) I’ll update the performance chart and give details of performance for the stocks that were held last month. As of about 2:00 PM Eastern the portfolio is up 3.22% since 5/3/13 and 26.6% from the first Friday this year. Here’s a link to last week’s update that has the list of stocks we are holding until the close today. Update 6/8/13 – the portfolio gained 3.41% for the month as of the close on Friday. It is up 26.8% from the first Friday of the year. The gains for the month are mostly a result of Ford