Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 9/24/13. Notice that Financials make the largest theme on a weekly basis.
Below are the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 9/24/13.
Once again BlackBerry (BBRY) proves the point that it’s a lot harder to make money against the trend than it is with it. After the counter trend bounce signal the stock traded higher, but crashed before traders on Twitter had given up. Another point to make is that in a live trade taking profit at the 50 and 200 day moving averages would have protected the profits even if you still held 1/3 of the position when it crashed. That’s why we always remind you to make your own decisions on each trade and don’t use our signals blindly. They are meant to be confirmation of what you already know or a starting point for your research. Twitter sentiment for Emerging Markets (EEM) has now closed its sell signal. All I can say is ouch…not every signal ends up being correct.
A couple of weeks ago I posted charts of precious metals with their Twitter sentiment indicators. In that post I concluded that “precious metals need a bounce right here or we’re probably seeing the resumption of the longer term down trend.” Gold and gold stocks didn’t get the bounce and subsequently broke back below their 50 day moving averages. This increases the odds that a continuation of the down trend is underway. There is a silver lining though. Sentiment hasn’t broken down too badly with price. Although the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) smoothed sentiment broke its uptrend line, it has turned back up at a point that is still confirming the move out of the June lows. This puts GLD back in a position that it once again needs to bounce right here. Market Vectors Gold Miner Shares ETF (GDX) has a much healthier chart and sentiment pattern. GDX is still holding its uptrend line for price that started with the June lows. Smoothed sentiment barely dipped below its
Over the past week breadth of the 50 most active stocks on Twitter improved slightly. The uptick was mainly a result of stocks clearing consolidation warnings or divergences and moving to an unclear status. 64% of the stocks have positive chart and sentiment patterns. Only 10% have negative patterns, however, many stocks that were in confirmed downtrends as recently as two weeks ago are starting to turn over so that number could grow during this week. Below is the breadth indicator and a pie chart showing the current status of the 50 most active stocks on Twitter.
Over the past week we finally saw all of our market risk indicator components turn positive. The statement from the FOMC on Wednesday cleared the immediate concerns of investors and caused a short covering rally from those who had hedged or sold short ahead of the announcement. We’re now at the point where the market has to prove itself. Several indicators that I follow turned positive last week, but many of them were very late compared to their historical performance. The fact that they signaled late indicates chasing to get on the right side of the market near highs. I’d much rather see chasing early in a rally because late signals can easily turn into whipsaws. Nevertheless, they are positive so odds currently favor higher prices. I’ve often said that long experience has taught me to wait until Friday after a Fed announcement before making any decisions about the next direction of the market. This week gave a mixed signal with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) giving up most of
Virtually no changes to our market health indicators this week. As a result, no changes to the core portfolios.
The Twitter Top 10 Portfolio is up 3.72% from the first Friday this month. That puts it up 29% from the first Friday of the year. The strong performance so far this month comes from several stocks being up nearly 10% or more. They are Yahoo (YHOO), Salesforce.com (CRM), Yelp (YELP), and Groupon (GRPN). Only one stock, Amarin (AMRN) is causing a significant drag being down 10.29%. Below is a performance chart and details of this month’s holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 9/6/2013 $LNKD 50 253.22 12661.00 243.39 12169.50 -3.88% $DDD 251 51.98 13046.98 53 13303.00 1.96% $YELP 197 62.4 12292.80 70.15 13819.55 12.42% $GRPN 1145 10.77 12331.65 12.51 14323.95 16.16% $BBY 333 37.02 12327.66 38.88 12947.04 5.02% $AMRN 1716 7.19 12338.04 6.45 11068.20 -10.29% $WLT 840 14.69 12339.60 14.15 11886.00 -3.68% $KORS 163 75.7 12339.10 75.97 12383.11 0.36% $YHOO 438 28.17 12338.46 30.85 13512.30 9.51% $CRM 255 48.47 12359.85 53.31 13594.05 9.99% Cash 27.51 27.51 Totals 124402.65
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) issued a consolidation warning on 7/19/13 when smoothed sentiment from the Twitter stream fell below its confirming uptrend line after a negative divergence from price. Today at the close sentiment for HPQ has moved back above the down trend line that has been in place since June. This officially closes the warning. As I’ve often mentioned there is a difference between a signal and an actual trade. This signal comes on a day when the stock fell over 2% after trying to hold its 200 day moving average and failing. It has now had a clear failure at a critical point. This gives evidence that the downtrend might resume at a faster pace over the next week or so. Staying short and putting a stop above the 200 dma would risk 3% against a possible gain of 10% or more if this consolidation is the half way point from the gap that started at the 50 dma. As always, make your own decisions, but remember there is a
I’m seeing several indicators confirm the recent break to new highs on the S&P 500 Index (SPX). First is our core market health indicators that had us removing hedges and adding longs during the last dip. The core indicators strengthened or held up as the market consolidated which gave indications that market participants were positioning for a fourth quarter rally. That strength was the first indication that the consolidation was most likely over. The next signal came from our Twitter Sentiment indicator for SPX on 9/10/13 when it cleared its consolidation warning. It did so by breaking the downtrend line that was confirming the consolidation. Yesterday Dow Theory reconfirmed the bullish trend. Then today a ratio that I use on a weekly basis looks like it has given the all clear signal. Historically, when the ratio between VIX and VXV (one month volatility vs. three month volatility) falls back below .9 on a weekly basis it has been the beginning of a new uptrend. When this ratio is high it