Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores of the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 11/5/13.
Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores of the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 11/5/13.
Below are charts with the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 11/5/13.
The counter trend bounce signal that was issued for Silver (SLV) on 10/18/13 has now been closed. As I warned, counter trend bounces in the precious metals have mostly been failures over the life of the signal even though price almost always traded higher. This was another instance for very nimble traders.
The buy signal for Wells Fargo (WFC) that was issued on 10/8/13 has now been closed. Smoothed sentiment for the stock has broken back below its downtrend line. The gain on the signal was 4.55%. The financials just haven’t been able to get going. Goldman Sachs (GS) recently closed a buy signal with only a .5% gain and Bank of America currently has a buy signal open, but is down 1.5% from its signal date.
Breadth improved for the 50 most active stocks on Twitter last week. The improvement comes mostly from two categories. A few stocks move out of confirmed downtrends and a few different stocks moved into confirmed up trends. The overall move is bullish, but breadth continues its divergence with price that started at the August highs.
Much of the same conditions I mentioned last week are still in place. Rotation and profit taking are still the major theme. Our market health indicators mostly fell last week, but didn’t deteriorate enough to change our core portfolio allocations. Our Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell sharply over the past week. The daily indicator didn’t produce any strong readings even on days the market rallied. The initial jubilation from traders on Twitter when SPX pushed above 1730 has quickly dissipated. Smoothed sentiment painted a negative divergence with price into the last peak which suggests traders were taking profit and shorting into that rally. Then a small drop in price caused a steep drop in sentiment indicating that others started to pile on to the trade. That behavior was expected given the fact that SPX had a large volume of tweets projecting a top at the 1775 level. The tweets lead price by two weeks and acted as a magnet to pull prices higher. Once 1775
Over the past week all of our market health indicators fell, however none of them fell enough to change our portfolio allocations. Both of our long/cash portfolios are still 80% long and 20% cash. Our hedged portfolio is 90% long and 10% short the S&P 500 index. The most significant change came in our measures of trend. Only a small dip in the market caused a large downward shift in our trend indicators. Our measures of market strength have been deteriorating for the past month, but have slowed their descent over the past week. It will most likely take a continuation of the uptrend next week or we’ll most likely be raising more cash and/or adding a larger hedge. Below is a chart of the our current market health indicator categories.
Here are the symbols for the new picks in the Twitter Top 10 portfolio for November. Only one stock (First Solar FSLR) stayed in the list from last month. F, DDD, ZNGA, JNJ, GE, FSLR, GILD, WLT, GLW, MA Here are the next five in the list for those of you that like to skip some. CELG, BBY, CLF, FDX, VZ Note: I’ll update this post with the performance data for last months picks sometime over the weekend. Update 11/2/13. Ouch. The momentum stocks had some profit taking this month then to add insult to injury Molycorp (MCP) and Uni-Pixel (UNXL) suffered large losses. First Solar had a great month which helped stem the losses, but overall the portfolio was down nearly 4% while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rallied. This definitely was not a good month for the portfolio, which highlights another problem with strict mechanical investing…it makes purchases in stocks just as they are peaking. From the first Friday of the year the portfolio is up 27%. Start