Just a quick note to let you know that there are no changes to our core portfolio allocations this week. Our measures of the economy are still barely negative keeping the long/cash portfolios 80% long and 20% cash. The hedged portfolio is 90% long and 10% short. Have a good weekend.
Just a quick update this weekend. Our Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 index (SPX) printed another extremely high reading on the daily indicator on Friday as the market broke to new highs. Bears and bulls alike are looking for higher prices into the end of the year. The general tone from bears is that the market is in a bubble that is currently starting a blow off top, but they’ll wait for the new year to regroup. The bulls are getting giddy. Smoothed sentiment has a negative divergence with price, but has eclipsed its last peak. It is well above zero and its confirming trend line. This suggests that the market should continue higher. Support and resistance levels moved up sharply during the week. Traders are now targeting 1850 on SPX above the market. The recent lows near 1765 and 1770 have become important support. Sector sentiment is painting a more bullish pattern with industrials showing the most positive bias and consumer staples and health care most negative.
All of our core market health indicators improved dramatically this week with the exception of our measures of the economy. It edged up a bit, but not enough to change our portfolio allocations. We’re still 80% long and 20% cash in the long / cash portfolios and 90% long and 10% short in the hedged portfolio. Below is a chart with the indicator categories.
The Twitter Top 10 portfolio is up 1.92% from the first Friday of this month and up 32.5% from the first Friday of the year. Below is a performance chart and details of the holdings this month. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 12/6/2013 $YHOO 335 38.86 13018.10 40.47 13557.45 4.14% $BAC 859 15.16 13022.44 15.74 13520.66 3.83% $PFE 413 31.54 13026.02 30.57 12625.41 -3.08% $GMCR 182 71.30 12976.60 77.04 14021.28 8.05% $GOLD 199 65.44 13022.56 61.46 12230.54 -6.08% $SINA 168 77.31 12988.08 79.42 13342.56 2.73% $SSYS 111 117.00 12987.00 127.93 14200.23 9.34% $BIDU 77 168.71 12990.67 172.95 13317.15 2.51% $JNJ 130 94.44 12277.20 92.62 12040.60 -1.93% $ZNGA 3405 3.99 13585.95 3.975 13534.88 -0.38% Cash 117.58 117.58 Totals 130012.20 132508.34 1.92%
The consolidation warning that was issued for Priceline (PCLN) on 12/6/13 has ended.
FYI, I won’t be posting a lot between now and the first of the year. I’ll do the regular Twitter and portfolio allocation posts. In addition, if I see anything important I’ll be sure to mention it. Otherwise I’ll be enjoying friends and family. I hope you do the same. It looks like the market is now set up for a Santa Claus rally. Here’s an update of the things I’ve been watching recently as warning signs. First is a chart of NYSE Cumulative Breadth (NYAD). Although it is still diverging from price, it has turned back up and looks like it has dodged a warning. The ratio between the S&P 500 index equal weighted (SPXEW) and the S&P 500 index (SPX) is still below its 20 week moving average, but has turned back up. As I’ve noted before this indicator is often early so keep an eye on it. The ratio between 1 month volatility (VIX) and 3 month volatility (VXV) is back below .9 (at the moment). When
A consolidation warning was issued for Procter & Gamble (PG) at the close on 12/17.
Below is a chart with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on StockTwits for the week ending 12/17/13. The next two charts have the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 12/17/13.
Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 12/17/13.
Below are charts with the intensity scores of the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 12/17/13.
Market Risk Rising
Volatility Hedged Portfolio