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Home 2014 February
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Market Health Stabilizes

Over the past week our market health indicators bounced around a bit, but had no major changes. It seems they are all stabilizing and attempting to move upward with the market, but not racing higher.  None of them moved enough to change our core portfolio allocations so we still have a small to moderate hedge (20% short and 80% long) in the hedged portfolio.  The long/cash portfolios are 60% long and 40% cash. Below is a chart with the current market health categories.

 
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Twitter Top 10 Portfolio Continues to Recover

The Twitter Top 10 portfolio is up 5% from the first Friday in February. It is slowly recovering the losses sustained in January. It is now down about a half percent from the first Friday of the year.  The gains this month come mainly from SolarCity (SCTY) up nearly 21% and Qihoo 360 Technology (QIHU) up 14.8%. America Online (AOL) is the largest decliner this month down 6.6%. Below is a performance chart and details of the current month’s holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 2/7/2014 $BAC 734 16.82 12345.88 16.64 12213.76 -1.07% $GMCR 114 107.75 12283.50 112.90 12870.60 4.78% $SCTY 228 71.31 16258.68 86.27 19669.56 20.98% $MU 504 24.51 12353.04 24.13 12161.52 -1.55% $GILD 157 78.75 12363.75 83.67 13136.19 6.25% $QIHU 128 96.48 12349.44 110.79 14181.12 14.83% $CELG 79 156.88 12393.52 163.99 12955.21 4.53% $PFE 396 31.22 12363.12 32.66 12933.36 4.61% $AMRN 7061 1.75 12356.75 1.73 12215.53 -1.14% $AOL 261 47.28 12340.08 44.19 11533.59 -6.54% Cash 99.01 99.01

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StockTwits Top 10 Up 8.6% YTD

The StockTwits Top 10 portfolio is now up nearly 8.6% from the first Friday of the year and over 6% on the month.  This month’s out performance is due mainly to First Solar (FSLR) up 14.6%, Biogen (BIIB) up 10%, and SunPower (SPWR) up 9%.  There are no substantial laggards. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 2/7/2014 $GILD 130 78.75 10237.50 83.63 10871.90 6.20% $CRM 166 61.55 10217.30 63.23 10496.18 2.73% $FSLR 205 49.83 10215.15 57.13 11711.65 14.65% $SPWR 333 30.68 10216.44 33.47 11145.51 9.09% $BIIB 32 315.54 10097.28 347.1 11107.20 10.00% $HPQ 352 29.07 10232.64 30.18 10623.36 3.82% $MRK 187 54.77 10241.99 57.32 10718.84 4.66% $DIS 135 75.67 10215.45 81.35 10982.25 7.51% $Z 119 85.80 10210.20 85.62 10188.78 -0.21% $JNJ 113 90.04 10174.52 92.37 10437.81 2.59% Cash 297.28 297.28 Totals 102355.75 108580.76 6.08%

 
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Sell Signal for Emerging Markets

At the close on 2/27/14 a sell signal was generated for the Emerging Markets ETF EEM. This signal is a result of smoothed Twitter sentiment confirming the downtrend in EEM by painting lower highs (as price did the same), then breaking back below the uptrend line created by the positive divergence drawn from the last lows.  Sentiment is breaking down as EEM is being rejected at its 50 day moving average.  This suggests that short covering, buying, and positive statements about the security on Twitter are drying up and selling or negative tweets are increasing at a logical resistance area.  

 
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Lack of Trade Signals Suggest Uncertainty

Trade Signals from the Twitter Stream

Over the past few weeks I’ve highlighted some things that suggest the market is in a trading range between 1800 and 1850 on the S&P 500 Index (SPX).  Another thing I’m seeing that indicates uncertainty is the lack of trade signals generated from the Twitter stream.  During the early months of 2013 as the market was coming out of a choppy period there were a lot of long signals generated (green vertical lines on the chart below).  As the market started to turn over in May several short signals were generated (red lines). Throughout most of the year the pattern of buy signals as the market rallied out of lows and sell signals at the beginning of declines continued. The dip into early February this year has broken that pattern.  There were a few sell signals as the market declined, but no buy signals on the subsequent rally.  When I look at individual charts I see sentiment confirming the price decline as a stock consolidates.  Bank of America (BAC) and

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Most Bullish Stocks on Twitter

Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores of the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 2/25/14.

 
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Most Bearish Stocks on Twitter

Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores of the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 2/25/14.

 
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Most Active Stocks on Twitter

Below are charts with the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 2/25/14.

 
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Most Bullish Stocks on StockTwits

Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on StockTwits for the week and month ended 2/25/14.

 
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Breadth From Twitter Stream Still Diverging

Stock market breadth calculated from the Twitter stream continues to paint a negative divergence with price. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has broken out to new highs but the number of stocks with strongly positive tweets isn’t rising with the market. In addition, the number of stocks with overtly negative tweets is staying fairly stable.  I’d like to see breadth rise if the market continues higher.  If the divergence persists it will provide early warning of a larger correction ahead.

 
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