Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 3/25/14.
Below are charts with the total intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 3/25/14.
Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on StockTwits for the week and month ended 3/25/14.
Over the past week the market rallied and almost all of the indicators I follow rallied with it. However, the underlying indicators were sluggish. They aren’t reacting the way I’d expect when the market is attempting to make new all time highs. Looking across the board I’m seeing a lack of enthusiasm from market participants and internal indicators alike. Our core market health indicators still have three categories (of five) with negative readings. Measures of breadth like the the percent of stocks above their 200 day moving average or the bullish percent index are still diverging from price. Many individual price charts are painting bearish flags rather than recovering recent losses. Our investor contentment index is barely above zero and our market stability index has been below zero since the first of the year. Added all together these indicators are suggesting a sluggish market is ahead of us unless we get a catalyst to point a direction. Our Twitter Sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is painting a
Over the past week all of our market health indicators rose. However, none of them moved enough to change our portfolio allocations. Overall, the indicators I follow are painting a picture of an indecisive market that has little fear of downside risk. It appears that market participants doing a little bit of selling, but for the most part are patiently holding. This usually creates a situation where the market moves choppily higher or sideways until a catalyst appears that creates a clear direction. Below is a chart with our current market health category readings.
The Twitter Top 10 portfolio recovered a bit over the past week, but is still lagging the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from the first Friday of the year. As I mentioned last week, the picks just haven’t been able to keep momentum. If you have time take a look at the charts for this month’s picks and you’ll see some ugly patterns that don’t bode well for the market as a whole. Below is a performance chart and details for this month’s picks. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 3/7/2014 $BIDU 73 182.04 13288.92 159.58 11649.34 -12.34% $BBRY 1345 9.91 13328.95 9.48 12750.60 -4.34% $BAC 734 17.33 12720.22 17.77 13043.18 2.54% $GTAT 761 17.50 13317.50 18.99 14451.39 8.51% $PCLN 10 1358.04 13580.40 1290.05 12900.50 -5.01% $KNDI 687 19.40 13327.80 19.02 13066.74 -1.96% $EBAY 225 59.06 13288.50 57.11 12849.75 -3.30% $CMG 22 593.41 13055.02 611.33 13449.26 3.02% $IRBT 307 43.35 13308.45 42.33 12995.31 -2.35% $ZNGA 2388 5.58 13325.04 5.01 11963.88 -10.22%
The StockTwits Top 10 portfolio fell over the past week. Like the Twitter Top 10 portfolio the stocks picked this month are stalling, consolidating, or falling even as the market moves to new highs. The lack of momentum suggest that rotation and churning is occurring in the market. Below is a performance chart and details of the current picks. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 3/7/2014 $ZNGA 1919 5.58 10708.02 5.02 9633.38 -10.04% $BIDU 58 182.04 10558.32 159.44 9247.52 -12.41% $AMD 2712 3.95 10712.40 4.09 11092.08 3.54% $SLV 533 20.08 10702.64 19.58 10436.14 -2.49% $EBAY 181 59.06 10689.86 56.97 10311.57 -3.54% $NOK 1347 7.95 10708.65 7.32 9860.04 -7.92% $REGN 32 328.11 10499.52 323.29 10345.28 -1.47% $AA 881 12.16 10712.96 12.05 10616.05 -0.90% $GE 410 26.13 10713.30 25.58 10487.80 -2.10% $ANR 2232 4.80 10713.60 4.46 9954.72 -7.08% Cash 388.91 388.91 Totals 107108.18 102373.49 -4.42%
Quantified StockTwits messages are flashing a sell signal for gold (GLD). After advancing for three months with support from the StockTwits stream GLD has turned over at a long term trend line for price. The reversal in price was preceded by a negative divergence from StockTwits that lasted a month. Now support from the StockTwits community has broke the confirming up trend in support. This creates the sell signal and increases the odds that GLD will at least consolidate in the near term and possibly resume its long term down trend.
The consolidation warning that was issued for Yelp (YELP) on 3/11/14 from the StockTwits stream has been closed. This is a good example of how nimble you have to be when trading sentiment against the trend. The Twitter stream almost closed the open buy signal for YELP at the same time as the consolidation warning above, but narrowly missed it. The signal remains open.