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Reluctant Gains

140531spx

Over the past week our Twitter Sentiment Indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose sharply. The rise was a result of bears giving up once SPX had a strong close above 1900. In fact the move in price caused the intensity of bearish tweets to drop by half. The bullish tweets didn’t increase much which signals that the bears aren’t turning bullish, merely stepping aside. Until the bears turn bullish the market won’t have the fuel to push prices significantly higher. Support and resistance levels are slowly moving up with the market. However, the break above 1900 on SPX still isn’t bringing with it substantially higher price projections from traders on Twitter. Most of the bullish tweets are clustered between 1925 and 1930, with some fun being had by bears stating the highs of the year will be 1929. There are also a few scattered tweets near the 2000 level. Below the market 1910 is the only significant support. This is further evidence that the bears have stepped aside

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Market Health Falls

140530MarketHealth

Over the past week the market rose, but all of our core indicators fell slightly. None of them changed enough to change portfolio allocations. Below is a chart of the current category readings.

 
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Twitter Top 10 Portfolio Finally Turns Up

140530TwitterTop10

After nearly three months of carnage in the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio it has finally turned up.  Micron (MU) and Rite Aid (RAD) have helped the portfolio while Zynga (ZNGA) and Allergan (AGN) are the largest drags. Below are a performance chart and details of the current holdings.   Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 5/2/2014 $MU 415 26.31 10918.65 28.87 11981.05 9.73% $AGN 64 169.91 10874.24 157.19 10060.16 -7.49% $INTC 413 26.41 10907.33 27.20 11233.60 2.99% $CELG 74 147.40 10907.60 153.19 11336.06 3.93% $RAD 1387 7.87 10915.69 8.35 11581.45 6.10% $GTAT 761 16.91 12868.51 16.87 12838.07 -0.24% $ZNGA 2828 3.86 10916.08 3.42 9671.76 -11.40% $XLE 116 93.72 10871.52 95.17 11039.72 1.55% $JNJ 110 99.31 10924.10 101.08 11118.80 1.78% $GE 409 26.68 10912.12 26.72 10928.48 0.15% Cash 102.83 102.83 Totals 111118.67 111891.98 0.70%

 
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StockTwits Top 10 Struggles to Keep Up

Published on May 30, 2014 by in Top 10 Portfolios
140530StockTwits10

Over the past week the StockTwits Top 10 portfolio recovered as the market rose, however, it is falling behind due to the defensive nature of the stocks in the portfolio and weakness in Zynga (ZNGA). Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings.   Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 5/2/2014 $ZNGA 2625 3.86 10132.50 3.415 8964.38 -11.53% $AA 881 13.72 12087.32 13.47 11867.07 -1.82% $SPWR 296 33.98 10058.08 33.19 9824.24 -2.32% $JNJ 102 99.31 10129.62 101.1 10312.20 1.80% $PFE 329 30.75 10116.75 29.56 9725.24 -3.87% $GE 410 26.68 10938.80 26.72 10955.20 0.15% $HD 127 79.40 10083.80 79.91 10148.57 0.64% $AIG 193 52.35 10103.55 53.93 10408.49 3.02% $QCOM 128 78.99 10110.72 80.25 10272.00 1.60% $HPQ 312 32.49 10136.88 33.73 10523.76 3.82% Cash 122.64 122.64 Totals 104020.66 103123.79 -0.86%

 
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Consolidation Warning for S&P 500 Closed

140529spx

The consolidation warning issued on 5/9/14 for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from the StockTwits stream has closed. This suggests that the uptrend will continue. Smoothed StockTwits messages are reaching a fairly high level so we should be due for a pull back over the next week or two that will help us reestablish a trend in sentiment.

 
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Counter Trend Bounce Signal for Twitter

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On 5/28/14 at the close a counter trend bounce signal was issued for Twitter (TWTR) from the Twitter stream. Please note because the stock is in a down trend this isn’t a buy signal. It merely suggests that TWTR is due for a bounce. Here are more details on how we use Twitter and StockTwits to trade stocks. The StockTwits community is also getting much more positive on TWTR and will most likely signal a counter trend bounce today (5/29/14) at the close.

 
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End of Consolidation Warning for Nasdaq 100

140528qqq

The consolidation warning issued for the Nasdaq 100 index (QQQ) on 5/12/14 has ended. This was another bad signal for QQQ and continues to show how resilient the general market has been since the beginning of 2013.

 
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Index Updates

140527qqq

Here’s some quick charts of QQQ and SPX with Twitter and StockTwits sentiment readings. QQQ is most likely going to close its consolidation warning today. The StockTwits community still has SPX on a consolidation warning and doesn’t like the sideways action over the past few months. Sentiment from the Twitter stream isn’t too impressed with the recent action either.  However, the break above 1900 today is bringing some strong readings.  As a result, sentiment will probably break its downtrend line and signal the resumption of the uptrend in the next day or two.

 
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Market Health Compressing

140523MarketHealth

Over the past week all of our core market health indicators with the exception of the economy rose sharply. Perceptions of risk from our core indicator still shows a moderate level, but our Market Risk Indicator sees virtually no risk at the moment.  In fact, it is showing readings that are most often associated with a significant low than a period of sideways consolidation. All the other indicators are compressing around the zero level. This is consistent with sideways consolidation in price. If the market can move above the 1900 area I suspect it will drag our indicators above zero and result in us adding more exposure to the portfolios in the next few weeks.

 
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Twitter Top 10 Portfolio Recovering

140523TwitterTop10

Over the past week the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio recovered much of the losses from earlier in the month. GT Advanced Tech (GTAT) was down more than 20% a few weeks ago and is now only down 6%.  That leaves Zynga (ZNGA) down 14% as the main reason the portfolio is under performing the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Below is a performance chart and details of the current picks.   Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 5/2/2014 $MU 415 26.31 10918.65 27.28 11321.20 3.69% $AGN 64 169.91 10874.24 166.90 10681.60 -1.77% $INTC 413 26.41 10907.33 26.22 10828.86 -0.72% $CELG 74 147.40 10907.60 151.10 11181.40 2.51% $RAD 1387 7.87 10915.69 8.01 11109.87 1.78% $GTAT 761 16.91 12868.51 15.93 12122.73 -5.80% $ZNGA 2828 3.86 10916.08 3.31 9360.68 -14.25% $XLE 116 93.72 10871.52 94.39 10949.24 0.71% $JNJ 110 99.31 10924.10 101.04 11114.40 1.74% $GE 409 26.68 10912.12 26.48 10830.32 -0.75% Cash 102.83 102.83 Totals 111118.67 109603.13 -1.36%  

 
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