
Over the past week the market rallied, but our core market health indicators didn’t participate. In fact, all of them except for our measures of risk turned down. As a result, we’re still 30% short in our hedged portfolio and only 40% long in the Long/Cash portfolios. One thing of note this week is that our market risk indicator is diverging from our core measures of risk. Our core measures of risk have made it into over bought territory while our market risk indicator is well below that level. Historically, over bought readings have usually been followed by a dip of more than 10% within a month or two. Early 1999 and 2013 were exceptions. There were four over bought readings in 2013 and three in 1999 that did not result in a good dip. Between 2000 and 2012 there were three times our core measures of risk were over bought. They were January 2004, April 2010, January through April 2011. I’m not too concerned about this indicator at the
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