Over the past week all of my core market health indicators fell. They continue to be mired in negative territory and aren’t responding much when the market rallies. My market risk indicator is also still negative, however, it continues to improve. It will take some positive price action next week to clear the warning. One thing of note is that a daily chart (closing prices) of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) appears to be painting a bear flag that is consolidating the August losses. This pattern has high odds of breaking lower. If that occurs then we’ll almost certainly see the August lows again and have a high likelihood that they won’t hold. That would put 1800 to 1820 on SPX in play as the first area for a bounce. If the market makes it back to the August lows I’ll take more profit from the hedge and soften it again…just in case the lows hold. Conclusion Core indicators are falling while risk is abating. Meanwhile, SPX is painting a
Last week I mentioned that I thought the small triangle consolidation would be broken to the upside before the market ultimately turns lower. We’ve had the break higher and the turn lower so the market is now at a very critical junction. The action over the next few weeks will likely point not only the short and intermediate term direction, but determine the long term trend as well. It is critical that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) hold the August lows or the long term trend will almost certainly be down. If on the other hand, the indexes can hold up the odds increase that the worst is behind us. My core market health indicators with the exception of risk all declined this week. This isn’t the type of action I like to see during a rally. It suggests that we’re seeing a dead cat bounce rather than a resumption of the uptrend. It appears that more time (and probably price weakness)
Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) completed the work it needed to do for a new secondary low to be marked. It joins the transports (DJTA) which completed the low pattern yesterday. This is a significant event given the fact that it’s been almost three years since Dow Theory lows have been made. We now have a reference point that is only 6% to 9% below current levels (DJIA and DJTA respectively) that will signal a new bear market is upon us if they are broken. But, until the August lows are broken the long term trend is considered bullish. According to Dow Theory you should use the current dip to accumulate more stock. What!!? Yes, according to Dow Theory you should time your purchases with secondary lows…and that means buying this dip. The idea is that you’re buying a dip with a clear sell stop that is only 6% below DJIA. If you had followed this methodology from the last Dow Theory bull market signal in the summer
At the close today the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) finally made a new secondary low. The last secondary low for the transports was in June of 2012.The completion of the new low is a result of a decline that retraced about 40% of the rally from June 2012 to December 2014, that was subsequently followed by a three week rally that has retraced about 40% of the decline from the last secondary high made in late December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) needs to break above 16,655 (without falling below the August low) to make the August low a new secondary low. Another 50 points tomorrow would do it. If that low is made we’ll have much more clarity on the long term trend of the market…or if not clarity at least we’ll have a good road map to follow. After new secondary lows are created in both indexes all we have to do is watch to see if both averages make it to new highs or if
Three weeks ago my market risk indicator signaled which caused me to change the portfolio allocations to an aggressive hedge. After the decline into the August 25th low the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been consolidating…although in a very wide and loose fashion. The current rally is consolidating the steep losses after the break of 2040 on SPX. As a result, the most likely resolution will be a break lower sometime in the next few weeks. However, my expectation is that the short term triangle from daily closing prices will be broken to the upside before the market ultimately turns lower. Looking at a point an figure chart which removes the linear time scale shows the consolidation and volatility much more clearly than a line chart. The current down trend line is on target to meet price at about 2000 on SPX which should provide some resistance. The 50 day moving average for SPX is also on a trajectory that should meet price near the 2000 level as well. The
At the end of August monthly momentum for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) joined MACD in warning that the long term trend has changed from bullish to bearish. This is just one more domino to fall in the ongoing battle between bullish indicators and bearish. Over the past week my core market health indicators bounced around a bit, but all of them are still warning. In addition, my market risk indicator is still warning and is showing no signs of abating at the moment. As a result, the portfolios are still aggressively hedged. This post shows the current allocations. Below is a chart with the current market health indicator categories. Please note: If we get a good washout next week that basically retests the August low I’ll likely (based on my read of the washout) take more profit from the hedge and rebalance to the following allocations: 50% long, 25% aggressively hedged, and 25% short SPX.