Over the past week, there wasn’t a lot of movement in my core market health indicators. It looks like we’ll have to wait and see if the current bounce holds or not. One thing that is showing a lot of improvement is the NYSE cumulative Advance Decline Line (NYAD). It is leading price on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and moving above its last high. This makes it much less likely that we’re painting a long term or even intermediate term top. Conclusion My core indicators are showing lackluster response to a small bounce in price, but NYAD is signalling that there’s not much chance of a large decline starting from here. I’m in wait and see mode without much worry.
Over the past week, most of my core market health indicators deteriorated. The most significant are my measures of market trend. This category fell below zero this week. This changes the portfolio allocations to the following. Long / Cash portfolio: 40% long and 60% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 70% long high beta stocks and 30% short the S&P 500 Index (can use the etf SH) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 11/11/2016) Another few things of note come from breadth and risk. Currently, most of the measures of breadth that I follow are still in the healthy range. My measures of risk are deteriorating quickly, meaning that risk is rising. What this tells me is that people are getting nervous, but they’re selectively selling. So, I’m still not too worried about a longer term top being put in place. Conclusion My core indicators are tumbling one by one, perceptions of risk are rising, but breadth is holding up fairly well. At the moment, this looks like rotation rather
Over the past week, my core market health indicators didn’t move much. They continue to bounce around with the market. One thing of concern is that a few measures of breadth are starting to show some weakness. Last month I highlighted the decline in the ratio between the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX). It is still warning of a move to mega caps. The cumulative advance decline line for NYSE (NYAD) is now giving a small warning. The small dip in price for SPX caused a lot of damage to NYAD. The longer this indicator goes without making a new high the more serious the warning will become. I don’t get concerned until it diverges for two or three months so this is something to watch, not something to worry much about. Another measure of breadth comes from Trade Followers Twitter sentiment. The count of bullish stocks diverged from price just before SPX moved to 2400. As the market tries to move higher
Over the past week, my core market health indicators bounced around, but didn’t move enough to make any changes to the core portfolios. I’ve started to see a lot of chatter stating that this is the start of a larger top. So far, I’m not seeing the same evidence. There is a bit of deterioration in some of my measures of breadth, but nothing drastic for a small decline in the general market. The most significant change comes from the ratio between the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX). As I mentioned last month, when this ratio dips below its 20 week moving average we usually see some consolidation. The dip was delayed, but it seems that we’re now experiencing it. Another measure of breadth is the percent of stocks above their 200 day moving average. Long time readers know that I don’t worry until it falls below 60%. As you can see, there are still a healthy number of stocks above
I’ve got a scheduling conflict this week so I won’t be able to do the normal Friday post. However, I took a look at my core market health indicators and it is highly unlikely that any of them will move enough in the next two days to change the portfolio allocations this week. Enjoy the rest of the week everyone.