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Waiting for a Direction

Over the past week, my core market health indicators bounced around, but had no significant changes. With most of the indicators compressing near the zero line, it appears that the market is waiting for a direction. One thing of note, is that my measures of market quality are very close to going negative. I suspect that the market will need to rally next week or this category of indicators will cause us to change the core portfolio allocations (raise some more cash or add more hedges). However, the volatility hedged portfolio is still a long way away from a negative reading. This means it would take substantial perception of risk in the market to hedge. This portfolio is still 100% long. Another sign the decline isn’t causing panic.   Conclusion My core indicators are compressing near zero. This indicates that market participants are waiting for a direction. Measures of risk are still healthy. This also suggests that everyone is waiting before taking any serious actions. So, we wait and see

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Not Much Change

Over the past week, my core market health indicators mostly deteriorated, but not in a significant way. The other indicators I’m following aren’t showing any real weakness. As a result, this still looks like consolidation of the recent rally rather than a change in the intermediate or long term trend. As always, make your own decisions about portfolio allocation based on your personal risk tolerance.

 
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