FYI, my market risk indicator is still warning. The bullish percent index is still below 60, but close enough that it could clear soon. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is consolidating along its 50 day moving average. A significant move above it would almost certainly clear the market risk warning. Another way the warning could clear is a retracement that doesn’t break below the lows posted earlier this month, then a slow steady climb upward. The market is at an inflection point and the market risk indicator is waiting to see which way it breaks so until the warning is cleared the portfolios are in cash or hedged with midterm volatility.
I mentioned on Monday that my market risk indicator was warning. It still hasn’t cleared and it doesn’t look like it has a chance to clear by the end of the day. As a result, I’m calling a warning signal. Market risk warnings come in two varieties. Ones that last for only a week or two (a false signal) and ones that last for several months (a significant correction or bear market). This signal has the odds tilted to more downside because the Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX) is below 60. When it is below 60 and my market risk indicator is warns the odds increase substantially (3 times more likely) that we’ve still got at least another 10% drop from here before we make an ultimate low. This isn’t a prediction, merely stating the odds based on history. This signal changes the portfolio allocations as follows: Long / Cash portfolio: 100% cash Long / Short portfolio: 50% long high beta stocks and 50% long midterm volatility (an ETF/ETN like VXZ or VIXM) Volatility
As of this moment, my market risk indicator is signalling. It requires a Friday close with all four components signalling to create a market risk warning. So we’ll have to wait till Friday before we panic with the rest of the market. Here are a couple of things I’m seeing. Two of the four components of my market risk indicator are very oversold. My core market health indicators are still all positive My core market health indicators are falling from overbought levels to more reasonable levels My conclusion is that the selling is due merely to fear and not concern over core market health. It looks to me like everyone knew that the market was overbought and now they’re all taking profit at the same time. As noted above, don’t panic until we see what the market looks like on Friday.