My core measures of market quality have gone positive again. My measures of market trend and strength are lagging. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, this suggests a somewhat choppy market ahead (although I was completely wrong on the chop keeping us from new highs in the S&P 500 Index — so maybe the consolidation will happen just above new highs). With market quality going positive the portfolio allocations change as noted below. As always, use your own personal risk tolerance to structure your own portfolio. Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 5/7/2018) Long / Cash portfolio: 40% long and 60% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 70% long high beta stocks and 30% short the S&P 500 Index (or use an ETF like SH)
My market health indicators are signalling that some consolidation is likely. All of the core categories are negative with the exception of risk. When this happens it usually signals that investors are taking profits, rebalancing portfolios, and/or rotating between sectors. At this point, I don’t expect a large draw down. It’s more likely that we get some chop (maybe a month or so) before moving to new highs in the S&P 500 Index (SPX). The movement in my core indicators change the portfolio allocations as follows: Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 5/7/2018) Long / Cash portfolio: 20% long and 80% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 60% long high beta stocks and 40% short the S&P 500 Index (or use an ETF like SH) As always, use your own risk tolerance to manage your portfolio.