On April 19th, the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) broke above its last secondary high. This suggests the bear market is in further doubt. Heh. “What bear market?” You ask. “The one Dow Theory says we’re still in.” I answer. You’re seeing the biggest problem with Dow Theory in action. It lags the market drastically. However, this lag is counter balanced with very long bull market trends where the money is made. For example, the previous bull trend lasted from October 5th, 2016 to December 21st, 2018. This was a very good time to be in the market. After the last bear signal on 12/21/18 there was only a bit of further downside damage. Then the market swiftly recovered. By the end of January this year, Dow Theory was suggesting that the market was likely to continue to favor the bulls. Now with the transports breaking above the last secondary high we’ve got one more signal that the bear trend is over (or didn’t start in the first place because the bear trend call was
Last Friday, my market strength indicator went positive. All of my core market indicator categories are now positive. This puts the long / cash portfolio and the long / short hedged portfolio 100% long high beta stocks. Note: I’m not going to report portfolio allocations for the long / cash portfolio and the long / short hedged portfolio going forward. However, I’ll continue to post my core market health indicator categories as they change. As always, structure your own portfolios based on your own risk tolerance.