Over the past week I saw improvement in almost all of the indicators I follow. However, the improvement was somewhat tepid. The indicators paint a picture of market participants willing to nibble and take small risks, but not expecting a lot of upside over the near term. Market breadth continues to improve on the headline numbers, but individual charts show a much more delicate picture. This isn’t a problem for now, but something to watch closely if the market pauses or dips. If a retracement back to the 1850 to 1800 level on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) brings with it a sharp decline in the percent of stocks above their 200 day moving average and the bullish percent index it will be a warning sign that the intermediate term trend is changing. A retracement without a sharp decline in breadth will indicate that the weak hands were shaken out during the dip in January and buyers are stepping up. Breadth is the indicator I’m watching most closely this coming
Over the past week all of our market health indicators strengthened except for our measures of the economy. None of them moved enough to change our core portfolio allocations. Our measures of market strength are increasing fast enough that there is a good chance of adding more exposure if the trend continues into next week. Below is a chart with the normalized values of our indicator categories.
It’s the first Friday of the month so it’s time for new picks for the Twitter Top 10 portfolio. Bank of America (BAC) is the only stock that stayed in the list from February. Here are the symbols for the March picks. BIDU, BBRY, BAC, GTAT, PCLN, KNDI, EBAY, CMG, IRBT, ZNGA Here are the next five symbols in the list. GILD, ACT, F, TRIP, MCP Below is a performance chart and details of the February picks. It is currently up 3.86% from the first Friday of February. Note: I’ll update the February details after the close today. After the close the portfolio was up 4.05% for the period. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 2/7/2014 $BAC 734 16.82 12345.88 17.33 12720.22 3.03% $GMCR 114 107.75 12283.50 106.00 12084.00 -1.62% $SCTY 228 71.31 16258.68 77.80 17738.40 9.10% $MU 504 24.51 12353.04 24.42 12307.68 -0.37% $GILD 157 78.75 12363.75 79.58 12494.06 1.05% $QIHU 128 96.48 12349.44 120.79 15461.12 25.20% $CELG 79
The StockTwits Top 10 Portfolio is up 4.48% from the first Friday in February and up 6.9% on the year. Solar stocks contributed the most to the gains with First Solar (FSLR) up 13.6% and SunPower up 12.7% on the month. It’s the first Friday of the month so it’s time for new portfolio picks. None of the stocks from last month stayed in the portfolio. Here are the symbols for the March picks. ZNGA, BIDU, AMD, SLV, EBAY, NOK, REGN, AA, GE, ANR Here are the next five stocks in the list. AIG, MS, HPQ, DIS, ABX Below is a performance chart and details of last month’s holdings. NOTE: I’ll update the details again after the close today. After the close the portfolio was up 4.64% for the February holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 2/7/2014 $GILD 130 78.75 10237.50 79.58 10345.40 1.05% $CRM 166 61.55 10217.30 60.74 10082.84 -1.32% $FSLR 205 49.83 10215.15 56.11 11502.55 12.60% $SPWR
Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 3/4/14.
Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 3/4/14.
Below are charts with the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 3/4/14.
Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on StockTwits for the week and month ended 3/4/14.
At the close on 3/4/14 a buy signal was generated for Bank of America (BAC). This signal comes from quantified StockTwits messages. As the stock has consolidated recently it has increased in support and sentiment from the StockTwits community. After a positive divergence over three weeks the trend of positive messages have overwhelmed the trend of negative messages which triggered the buy signal. Here’s a post with the details of how we trade stocks based on StockTwits and Twitter.