Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 6/11/13.
Below is the status of the most Active stocks on Twitter. Here’s a post that explains our Stock Status Categories. The next two charts show the intensity scores for the the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 6/11/2013.
Our core market health indicators didn’t change much this week so we made no changes to our core portfolios. Market Positives Our market risk indicator started showing concern during the selling on Thursday, but recovered substantially after the market bounced. This is the indicator we feel is most important to watch in the current environment. Higher concern about the Fed tapering QE or Japan’s woes will almost certainly show up in market risk before we see it in any of our other indicators. As we mentioned on Monday we felt like the S&P 500 Index (SPX) should catch at 1600 due to multiple forms of support converging. The two strong days that have followed indicate there were buyers waiting for that level which creates a good line in the sand. Our measures of market quality, trend, and strength are all positive. The selling last week didn’t do any substantial damage which indicates strength in the internal structure of the market. In addition, our market stability indicator held up fairly well
Our core market health indicators held up last week even amid the selling in the market. No big changes to any of the categories which means we didn’t make any changes to our core portfolios.
It’s the first Friday of the month so today we get a new list of stocks to hold in the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio. These stocks will be held from the close today (6/7/13) until the close on July 5th, 2013. BAC, GS, F, CSCO, C, KORS, CLSN, BIDU, HD, HOT Two stocks stayed in the portfolio this month. Ford (F) and Starwood Hotels (HOT). After the market closes (or over the weekend) I’ll update the performance chart and give details of performance for the stocks that were held last month. As of about 2:00 PM Eastern the portfolio is up 3.22% since 5/3/13 and 26.6% from the first Friday this year. Here’s a link to last week’s update that has the list of stocks we are holding until the close today. Update 6/8/13 – the portfolio gained 3.41% for the month as of the close on Friday. It is up 26.8% from the first Friday of the year. The gains for the month are mostly a result of Ford
Below are charts of the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 6/4/13.
Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter over the past week and month.
Below are charts with the status of the 50 Most active stocks on Twitter and the intensity scores for the 25 most active stocks on a weekly and monthly basis.
Over the past week we saw encouraging signs from our core market health indicators even though the stock market was falling. As a result, we took the opportunity on Friday to reduce our hedges and add more long exposure to our portfolios. Here are the details. Market Positives Our measures of market quality, trend, and strength all improved substantially last week. Mixed Signals Our Twitter Sentiment Indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is starting to show weakness along with the general market. Over the past two weeks the daily readings have been mostly positive, but declining. Friday printed a fairly negative reading of -16, which is the lowest reading we’ve seen since mid April. It is our first indication that traders on Twitter are becoming decidedly bearish. In the individual tweets we’re seeing a lot of top calling rather than calls for consolidation. Smoothed sentiment diverged from price for a little over a week and is now following price lower. This puts us in a position where we can’t
The Twitter Top 10 portfolio bounced back this week. It is now up 4.1% for the month and 27.7% for the year. The gains are a result of two big winners. 3D Systems (DDD) is up over 22% and Ford (F) is up over 15%. The losers in the portfolio are exactly what our concerns were when the list was created at the first of May. We made explicit mention about LinkedIn (LNKD) which is down 2.74%, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) down .36%, and Coca-Cola (KO) down 4.38%. If we were using our heads instead of a mechanical system we would have avoided these picks. By skipping defensive sectors like Consumer Staples, Utilities, etc. that we felt were being sold by most market participants we would have bought the following stocks instead. Home Depot (HD) up 7.4%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 12.2%, and Walt Disney (DIS) down .002%. That’s why we feel you should think for yourself rather than blindly following any investment strategy. Below is a performance chart