Below are charts of the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter over the past week and month. Here is the status of the fifty most active stocks on Twitter. We’re starting to see more consolidation warnings and more unclear charts.
Just a quick update on our Twitter sentiment indicators for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and sectors today since we didn’t do an update over the weekend. It appears to us that SPX is trying to decide what to do. Sentiment is showing a negative divergence from price, but it hasn’t met our three week to a month criteria that we use to provide meaningful signals. Over the next week we should have enough information to make a call (either a consolidation warning or confirmation of the uptrend). Support and resistance numbers generated from the Twitter stream stayed the same last week even with the big moves in price. Support remains 1650 and 1600 and resistance is at 1665 and 1700. We did get some tweets in the 1635 area pointing to the lows on Thursday and Friday. We’ll need to see them continue into this week to consider them support if 1650 fails. From a sector perspective the market looks like it wants to go higher. Consumer Staples and
Our Twitter Top 10 portfolio gave a little back this past week. It is now up 3.15% for the month and 26.5% on the year. Below are a performance chart and details of this month’s holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 5/3/2013 $LNKD 71 175.59 12466.89 173.8 12339.80 -1.02% $DDD 315 39.88 12562.20 46.4 14616.00 16.35% $F 903 13.83 12488.49 14.79 13355.37 6.94% $UPS 130 86.09 11191.70 86.83 11287.90 0.86% $HOT 173 65.21 11281.33 68.45 11841.85 4.97% $JNJ 146 85.75 12519.50 86.82 12675.72 1.25% $SBUX 203 61.87 12559.61 63.36 12862.08 2.41% $COH 216 58.25 12582.00 57.76 12476.16 -0.84% $KO 298 42.24 12587.52 42.24 12587.52 0.00% $V 68 179.54 12208.72 180.45 12270.60 0.51% Cash 229.54 229.54 Totals 122677.50 126542.5 3.15%
Our core market health indicators saw improvement in everything except our measures of the economy. We’re increasing exposure in our core portfolios today. Our Long / Cash portfolios will now be 60% long. Our hedged portfolio will be 80% long and 20% short. The short is a simple short of the S&P 500 Index (or SH). Below are charts showing where we added exposure (green lines) and raised cash or added hedges (yellow and red lines). The core long / cash portfolio has had limited exposure that has varied from 20% long to 100% long. The hedged portfolio (Long / Short Hedge) Has had a bit more exposure to the long side, but carried a fairly significant hedge during the last part of this rally. This was due to our core market health indicators remaining mostly negative during the move from 1550 to 1650.
Below are the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter over the past week and month.
Over the past week all of our core market health indicators improved, however, none of them improved enough to change our core portfolio allocations. Market Positives We continue to see price move higher in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) while perceptions of risk go lower. Our measures of risk are signalling that investors and traders have little long term concern. Our measures of the economy, market quality, trend, and strength all improved late this week, while measures of market breadth are at historical levels. This signals that even reluctant buyers are entering the market. Our investor contentment index shot substantially higher over the past two weeks which is another sign of money flowing into stocks. Our Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is painting moderately high readings on up days and fairly flat reading on down days. This is a positive sign for a market making new highs. Even though there continues to be a very large number of tweets concerned with overbought conditions there are enough
Our Twitter Top 10 portfolio had another good week. It is up 4.62% from the 3rd of this month and up 28.34% from the beginning of the year. 3D Systems (DDD) and Ford (F) are the big winner so far this month with gains of 16% and 9% respectively. All the other holdings are up between 1% and 4%. Below are a performance chart and details of the current holdings. Prices as of about 2:45 Eastern on 5/17/2013. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 5/3/2013 $LNKD 71 175.59 12466.89 182.65 12968.15 4.02% $DDD 315 39.88 12562.20 46.56 14666.40 16.75% $F 903 13.83 12488.49 15.07 13608.21 8.97% $UPS 130 86.09 11191.70 88.49 11503.70 2.79% $HOT 173 65.21 11281.33 67.38 11656.74 3.33% $JNJ 146 85.75 12519.50 87.81 12820.26 2.40% $SBUX 203 61.87 12559.61 63.78 12947.34 3.09% $COH 216 58.25 12582.00 59 12744.00 1.29% $KO 298 42.24 12587.52 42.68 12718.64 1.04% $V 68 179.54 12208.72 183.52 12479.36 2.22% Cash 229.54 229.54 Totals 122677.50
Our core market health indicators all improved this week. Early in the week several of them were flat to down, but the rally on Friday brought them back. They are all on the verge of turning positive. Even our measures of the economy are starting to show some strength. We should be adding more exposure to our core portfolios by next Friday unless the market turns down significantly.