Over the past week our core market health indicators fell slightly, but we made no changes to our core portfolios. The details are in this post. We’re seeing a battle between event risk and market internals. Overall our measures of market health and internal structure are constructive, while our measures of risk are signalling skittishness by investors. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) held up fairly well last week in the face of several market scares. It seemed like every day brought some new rumor that drove the market up and down. But when the dust settled SPX only gave up a little over one percentage point. Meanwhile measures of intermediate term breadth like the percent of stocks above their 200 day moving average and the bullish percent index still have very healthy readings. Looking at market internals this appears to be a garden variety consolidation. We’re not seeing any real damage under the covers as price pulls back. SPX has held a critical support level near 1600 and bounced twice
Over the past week our core market health indicators slipped a bit. The most notable weakness came from market risk. On Wednesday and early Thursday our market risk indicator got fairly close to a signal, then pulled back as the market rallied. As noted earlier in the week, all but one of its components is now negative and any acceleration in the market to the downside (probably through 1600 or 1575 on a weekly basis) will most likely trigger a signal. Our measures of the economy are staying flat, but trying to recover. Our measures of quality dipped slightly, measures of trend are showing weakness, and measures of strength are holding up. Overall, the market looks healthy to us, but the skittishness showing up in market risk puts us in a position where we’re watching closely. We still suspect that if we raise cash or add hedges it will be a result of our market risk indicator rather than market internals. We made no changes to our core portfolios over
Just as we suspected when we saw the picks for the portfolio this month, a thinking person would have skipped Celsion Corp (CLSN). It is down 21.43% in just a week. This is a great example of one of the limitations of mechanical investing and the reason we try to warn about stocks we’d skip for our own portfolio. It is a good reminder for you to always think for yourself…and never follow any investment strategy blindly. Overall the portfolio is down 4.74% for the month, but it is still up 20.8% from the first Friday of the year. Below is a performance chart and details for the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 6/7/2013 $BAC 940 13.38 12577.20 13.08 12295.20 -2.24% $GS 75 166.01 12450.75 164 12300.00 -1.21% $F 903 15.73 14204.19 15.45 13951.35 -1.78% $CSCO 513 24.49 12563.37 24.18 12404.34 -1.27% $C 243 51.6 12538.80 48.49 11783.07 -6.03% $KORS 200 62.69 12538.00 60.81 12162.00 -3.00% $CLSN
Below are charts of the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 6/11/13.
Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 6/11/13.
Below is the status of the most Active stocks on Twitter. Here’s a post that explains our Stock Status Categories. The next two charts show the intensity scores for the the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 6/11/2013.
Our core market health indicators didn’t change much this week so we made no changes to our core portfolios. Market Positives Our market risk indicator started showing concern during the selling on Thursday, but recovered substantially after the market bounced. This is the indicator we feel is most important to watch in the current environment. Higher concern about the Fed tapering QE or Japan’s woes will almost certainly show up in market risk before we see it in any of our other indicators. As we mentioned on Monday we felt like the S&P 500 Index (SPX) should catch at 1600 due to multiple forms of support converging. The two strong days that have followed indicate there were buyers waiting for that level which creates a good line in the sand. Our measures of market quality, trend, and strength are all positive. The selling last week didn’t do any substantial damage which indicates strength in the internal structure of the market. In addition, our market stability indicator held up fairly well
Our core market health indicators held up last week even amid the selling in the market. No big changes to any of the categories which means we didn’t make any changes to our core portfolios.
It’s the first Friday of the month so today we get a new list of stocks to hold in the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio. These stocks will be held from the close today (6/7/13) until the close on July 5th, 2013. BAC, GS, F, CSCO, C, KORS, CLSN, BIDU, HD, HOT Two stocks stayed in the portfolio this month. Ford (F) and Starwood Hotels (HOT). After the market closes (or over the weekend) I’ll update the performance chart and give details of performance for the stocks that were held last month. As of about 2:00 PM Eastern the portfolio is up 3.22% since 5/3/13 and 26.6% from the first Friday this year. Here’s a link to last week’s update that has the list of stocks we are holding until the close today. Update 6/8/13 – the portfolio gained 3.41% for the month as of the close on Friday. It is up 26.8% from the first Friday of the year. The gains for the month are mostly a result of Ford
Below are charts of the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 6/4/13.