Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter over the past week and month.
Below are charts with the status of the 50 Most active stocks on Twitter and the intensity scores for the 25 most active stocks on a weekly and monthly basis.
Over the past week we saw encouraging signs from our core market health indicators even though the stock market was falling. As a result, we took the opportunity on Friday to reduce our hedges and add more long exposure to our portfolios. Here are the details. Market Positives Our measures of market quality, trend, and strength all improved substantially last week. Mixed Signals Our Twitter Sentiment Indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is starting to show weakness along with the general market. Over the past two weeks the daily readings have been mostly positive, but declining. Friday printed a fairly negative reading of -16, which is the lowest reading we’ve seen since mid April. It is our first indication that traders on Twitter are becoming decidedly bearish. In the individual tweets we’re seeing a lot of top calling rather than calls for consolidation. Smoothed sentiment diverged from price for a little over a week and is now following price lower. This puts us in a position where we can’t
The Twitter Top 10 portfolio bounced back this week. It is now up 4.1% for the month and 27.7% for the year. The gains are a result of two big winners. 3D Systems (DDD) is up over 22% and Ford (F) is up over 15%. The losers in the portfolio are exactly what our concerns were when the list was created at the first of May. We made explicit mention about LinkedIn (LNKD) which is down 2.74%, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) down .36%, and Coca-Cola (KO) down 4.38%. If we were using our heads instead of a mechanical system we would have avoided these picks. By skipping defensive sectors like Consumer Staples, Utilities, etc. that we felt were being sold by most market participants we would have bought the following stocks instead. Home Depot (HD) up 7.4%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 12.2%, and Walt Disney (DIS) down .002%. That’s why we feel you should think for yourself rather than blindly following any investment strategy. Below is a performance chart
Over the past week most of our core market health indicators improved. Our measures of the economy are still negative, but improving slowly. Our measures of risk showed some weakness that signals investors are getting a bit more concerned about the market. However, we believe that this is a normal condition when the market stalls rather than an indication of substantially lower prices. Our measures of market quality, trend, and strength jumped substantially this week. It is interesting that our measures of trend followed quality and strength in going positive especially since the rally out of the November lows has trended so strongly. It is an indication of how odd this rally has been from a underlying technical perspective. The positive changes in market trend is causing a change in our core portfolio allocations. Our Long / Cash strategies are now 80% long and 20% cash. Our Hedged portfolio is now 90% long and 10% short (using a simple short of the S&P 500 Index — or the ETF
Below are charts of the intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter over the past week and month.
Below are charts of the intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter over the last week and month.
Below are charts of the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter over the past week and month. Here is the status of the fifty most active stocks on Twitter. We’re starting to see more consolidation warnings and more unclear charts.
Just a quick update on our Twitter sentiment indicators for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and sectors today since we didn’t do an update over the weekend. It appears to us that SPX is trying to decide what to do. Sentiment is showing a negative divergence from price, but it hasn’t met our three week to a month criteria that we use to provide meaningful signals. Over the next week we should have enough information to make a call (either a consolidation warning or confirmation of the uptrend). Support and resistance numbers generated from the Twitter stream stayed the same last week even with the big moves in price. Support remains 1650 and 1600 and resistance is at 1665 and 1700. We did get some tweets in the 1635 area pointing to the lows on Thursday and Friday. We’ll need to see them continue into this week to consider them support if 1650 fails. From a sector perspective the market looks like it wants to go higher. Consumer Staples and
Our Twitter Top 10 portfolio gave a little back this past week. It is now up 3.15% for the month and 26.5% on the year. Below are a performance chart and details of this month’s holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 5/3/2013 $LNKD 71 175.59 12466.89 173.8 12339.80 -1.02% $DDD 315 39.88 12562.20 46.4 14616.00 16.35% $F 903 13.83 12488.49 14.79 13355.37 6.94% $UPS 130 86.09 11191.70 86.83 11287.90 0.86% $HOT 173 65.21 11281.33 68.45 11841.85 4.97% $JNJ 146 85.75 12519.50 86.82 12675.72 1.25% $SBUX 203 61.87 12559.61 63.36 12862.08 2.41% $COH 216 58.25 12582.00 57.76 12476.16 -0.84% $KO 298 42.24 12587.52 42.24 12587.52 0.00% $V 68 179.54 12208.72 180.45 12270.60 0.51% Cash 229.54 229.54 Totals 122677.50 126542.5 3.15%