Just a quick update on our Twitter indicators this weekend due to Mother’s Day. Our Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) continues to confirm the breakout above 1600, however, the daily indicator is showing some lower prints. As the market pushed higher above the 1625 range we started to see a lot of tweets indicating traders thought the market was overbought. Those tweets mentioned technical indicators such as Bollinger bands, trend channels, the McClellan oscillator, and the distance the market is above its moving averages. This suggests that traders believe the market is due for a short term pull back. Smoothed sentiment is holding up well because bullish and bearish sentiment is fairly evenly matched even with all the mentions of overbought conditions. The trend of smoothed sentiment is up and it is above zero indicating that market participants have an overall bullish bias. Twitter support and resistance levels are showing a small layer of support at 1625 on SPX and a strong floor below the market
All of our core market health indicators improved again this week. None of them rose enough to change our portfolio allocations, however, it appears that over the next few weeks we should be adding exposure and removing hedges. The only thing that we can see that would change this view would be a very sharp and substantial sell off in the market. Our measures of risk improved substantially which continues to confirm that market participants just don’t believe the market will suffer a deep correction. Our measures of the economy, market trend, quality, and strength all rose very quickly this past week as the S&P 500 Index held firm and continued to move up after the break above 1600.
Our Twitter Top 10 Portfolio is now up 1.75% for the week and 24.8% year to date. Below is a performance chart and details for the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 5/3/2013 $LNKD 71 175.59 12466.89 172.82 12270.22 -1.58% $DDD 315 39.88 12562.20 43.49 13699.35 9.05% $F 903 13.83 12488.49 14.07 12705.21 1.74% $UPS 130 86.09 11191.70 88.24 11471.20 2.50% $HOT 173 65.21 11281.33 67.62 11698.26 3.70% $JNJ 146 85.75 12519.50 85.58 12494.68 -0.20% $SBUX 203 61.87 12559.61 62.98 12784.94 1.79% $COH 216 58.25 12582.00 59.38 12826.08 1.94% $KO 298 42.24 12587.52 41.99 12513.02 -0.59% $V 68 179.54 12208.72 178.45 12134.60 -0.61% Cash 229.54 229.54 Totals 122677.50 124827.1 1.75%
Below are charts of the bullish intensity for the most bullish stocks on Twitter over the past week and month.
Below are charts showing the bearish intensity for the most bearish stocks on Twitter over the past week and month.
Our core market health indicators all improved this week, but are mostly refusing to move above zero. Our measures of risk abated quite a bit this week and are once again our only positive indicator. Our measures of the economy, market quality, trend, and strength all rose as well. The market trend improved the most, but is still well below zero. This is concerning considering the fact that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is at all time highs. We’re currently seeing the same pattern that our indicators painted in April and May of 2011 where the market was making new highs but our indicators refused to go positive. In May of 2011 our only positive indicator was risk just as is the case today. The market ended up resolving the disparity by first trading in a 8% range and culminating with a 20% correction. However, the worst of the decline came nearly four months after our indicators went negative. We’re 2 1/2 months into the current negative warnings so it’s
Our Twitter Top 10 portfolio had another great month in April gaining 6.12% while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) gained 3.9%. For the year the portfolio is up 22.68% (specifically from the close on January 4th since we make portfolio adjustments on the first Friday of every month). These gains came over a four month period where the stock market has been in a relentless up trend so we’re almost hoping for a correction just to see how the portfolio performs. The largest gains in the portfolio came from Yahoo (YHOO), Starwood Hotels (HOT), Nike (NKE), Visa (V), Ford (F), and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR). All of them were up over 7.5% with Ford as the leader with gains over 11% in the month. The only loser this month was VMware (VMW) which was down 3.13%. Four stocks stayed in the portfolio from last month; Ford, United Parcel Service (UPS), Starwood Hotels, and Visa. The new additions for May are LinkedIn (LNKD), 3D Systems (DDD), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ),