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Counter Trend Bounce Signals for Silver and Randgold Resources

Social Media Sentiment for Silver (SLV)

For all you precious metals fans, sorry I missed a counter trend bounce signal for the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) on 10/16/13. I saw it on Friday (10/18/13) so the chart is marked as such. Sentiment for Randgold Resources (GOLD) issued a counter trend bounce signal at the close on Friday (10/18/13).  Sentiment generated from the Twitter stream has painted a positive divergence with price as it made a lower low and has subsequently broken the down trend line that was confirming the move into the last low.  The fact that both SLV and GLD are issuing counter trend bounce signals adds a bit of weight to the possibility for a bounce in the entire precious metals space. As you know I don’t like to trade stocks in a down trend.  For those of you that do please be aware of one thing. Although the counter trend bounce signals in the precious metals have almost always seen higher prices after the signal.  Most of them were failures over the course

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Precious Metals Need a Bounce

Twitter Sentiment for Gold (GLD)

During the rally out of the late June low the gold ETF I track (GLD) has had confirmation from sentiment generated from the Twitter stream. Smoothed sentiment has had a good uptrend that has held on dips.  It’s currently coming back to the trend line and attempting to turn up even as price has fallen over the past few days.  This is a good sign, but GLD needs to bounce right here or there will be a high probability for a resumption of the down trend.  Another factor that may bring heavy selling if a bounce doesn’t materialize is that GLD is sitting right on its 50 day exponential moving average.  A break below that level will almost certainly trigger some stops. The gold shares ETF that I track (GDX) has a stronger sentiment pattern than GLD.  Smoothed sentiment had a large positive divergence from the hard break down in price in April to the break down in June.  Since that time sentiment has held its upward sloping (and confirming)

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Precious Metals Update

Twitter Sentiment for GDX

A few weeks ago we did an update on Gold (GLD) and Gold Stocks (GDX) where where stated that it was critical for them to hold their trend lines from the May 2012 lows.  Well GLD has held the trend line, but GDX has not.  We’re getting concerned that gold stocks are going to renew their down trend. We’ll give the negatives first, then move on to the positives (or what might better be called a sliver of hope).  We already mentioned GDX breaking its most recent up trend line.  Now there’s more bad news in that GDX has also broken back below the downward sloping trend line that goes back to the August 2011 highs.  It is now consolidating below that line.  When GDX broke and consolidated above it we thought the worst was over for precious metals.  Now that it’s consolidating below the odds favor  a resumption of the down trend.  The break of both trend lines brought with it very negative Twitter sentiment that shows the backs

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Silver Still Looking Good But Risk Rising

Twitter Sentiment for Silver (SLV)

Silver (SLV) has had a very strong rally over the past five months.  This rally brought with it very strong Twitter sentiment, indicating that traders were confirming the rally.  At the first of October sentiment started to wane.  The consolidation that followed was fairly orderly and kept our smoothed twitter sentiment indicator near the zero line resulting in a small rally.  We’re now at the point where price is nearing the apex of a near term triangle pattern.  We’re watching our Twitter sentiment indicator for SLV for clues as to which way it will break. SLV had a downward initiation thrust in our Twitter sentiment indicator on November 30th when price reversed and daily sentiment printed a very negative number.  This warned that we should see at least a few days of price weakness.  We’re seeing that weakness now, however it is being met with a positive divergence in daily sentiment suggesting that the selling should start to slow and a rally should emerge in the near term. The weakness

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Precious Metals Sentiment Improving

Precious metals are once again attempting to form a bottom.  Both gold and silver have traded sideways to up for the last two or three months and have had Twitter sentiment increase during the move.  It is encouraging to see that sentiment got oversold even as price formed higher lows early in the bottoming process. Many tweets were full of predictions for lower lows and a continuation of the down trend (hopefully shaking out weak holders).  For SLV specifically, 26 was a critical level that traders believed would not hold. The next touch on the lows or the newly established up trend lines was met with significantly higher sentiment readings as investors started to believe that the danger was past.  SLV has broken a short term down trend line while GLD has broken out of a short term triangle pattern.  Both ETFs had sentiment confirm the break to the upside.   Most important to us is that GLD and gold stocks have risen to meet a long term down trend

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Time to Buy Gold Stocks?

Published on July 24, 2012 by in Gold, Gold Stocks, Silver

My reading on gold stocks is that they’re probably not finished declining.  GLD has been trying to hold the 150 area for nearly three months while GDX and GDXJ have had a rally with a trend line failure.  Previous failures have resulted in fairly severe sell offs. However, there is some good news in the charts.  Notice the volume on the recent rally was very high for GDX.  Then as it started selling off as volume is drying up.  This is different than the two previous rallies that failed (they had low volume rallies and higher volume sell offs). So what would I do? If I held absolutely no precious metals in my portfolio I’d be willing to dip my toes in the water at these prices as a hedge against the European debt crisis escalating.  The position would NOT be an inflation hedge.  It would be a hedge against a confidence failure in the Euro as a currency.  I’d be buying with the expectation that I’ll add more to

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