It’s getting ugly for my core market health indicators. My measures of market quality, trend, and strength are all in oversold territory. During bull markets, oversold conditions generally result in a resumption of an uptrend. Unfortunately, I suspect we’re at the beginning of a long term bear market so oversold conditions should now result in more price destruction before a rally can ensue. Here are a few charts that suggest we’re likely resuming the down trend. First is a point and figure chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). It now has a bearish reversal during an intermediate term down trend. Next is a weekly chart of SPX Elder Impulse. It has turned red after a short term rally that couldn’t produce a green bar. Conclusion It’s ugly out there. We’re likely in a bear market. Dow Theory hasn’t signaled yet, but many other indicators are toppling one by one. As a result, bear market rules apply as I interpret charts and indicators… which are currently suggesting a resumption of
Although Dow Theory hasn’t confirmed a bear market yet, a lot of other S&P 500 Index (SPX) indicators are starting to show bear market behavior. I’ve mentioned before that monthly MACD and Momentum are starting to look like we’re in a bear market. In addition, the long term timing indicator at Trade Followers (breadth between bullish and bearish stocks) is signalling that we’re in a long term down trend. Now it appears that weekly MACD and RSI for SPX are starting to show strong signs that we’re in a bear market. Notice on the chart below that during bear markets RSI spends most if its time below 50 with peaks in the 55 to 60 area. That has been the case for RSI since the May peak. MACD is also showing the same type of weak behavior. During short term rallies in long term down trends MACD is usually constrained by the zero line. The last rally barely moved MACD above zero and it is now well below that level.
This week wasn’t a good week for my core market health indicators. My measures of market quality, trend, and strength all fell even as the market rallied on Thursday and Friday. This isn’t what the bulls want to see for a sustained rally. So far, this is looking like a bear market rally rather than the start of a new intermediate or long term uptrend. If we have entered a bear market (Dow Theory hasn’t confirmed a bear market yet) then bear market rules will apply to how I read various indicators. Elder Impulse for the S&P 500 Index on a weekly chart is a good example. Notice that during a bull market a blue bar that follows a red bar is usually a good time to buy the dip. However, since the top in May a blue bar that follows a red bar gives us little useful information. Even though Dow Theory hasn’t confirmed a bear market yet, I believe that the odds are very high that we’ll likely
This week didn’t do much to help my core market health indicators or my market risk indicator. Everything is mired in red. We’ve finally got a decent bounce underway, now we watch to see if the core indicators get better or risk abates. Until then, we’ll stay aggressively hedged.
I’m seeing several signs that we’re at an inflection point for the long term trend of the market (meaning years). It has been uptrending since 2009 and it looks like it’s make or break time for the bull. Here are some of the things I’m seeing that indicate the market must rally very soon or the long term trend will be down and a new bear market has begun. First is my market risk indicator, which is an intermediate term indicator, has just signaled. Take a look at the chart below and you’ll see that it signals at inflection points. It generally warns very near the low or just as the market is generating downside momentum. This indicator suggests that more excitement (either up or down) is close. Next we have Dow Theory. It is only a few percentage points away from signaling a long term bear market. This indicator marks very long term trends in the market. When both indexes break their secondary lows it tells us that the
Wow. What a week. Like the market all of my core health indicators got hammered. They are now all deep in negative territory. I’ll let the chart speak for itself. One thing of note is that my market risk indicator is now signalling. This changes the volatility hedged portfolio to 50% long and 50% hedged with mid term volatility (an ETF/ETN like VXZ) or dynamic volatility (XVZ). For official tracking purposes I use XVZ, but the instrument is thinly traded so it introduces problems in actual portfolio management. First is that thin trading means it is difficult to fill large trades at a good “market” price. Second is that in a swiftly declining market the bid may as much as 20% below the market so you’ll have difficulty getting out of the position (or rebalancing) when pure panic has set in. As a result, I personally use mid term volatility like VXZ instead of dynamic volatility. But, since the back test has been done with XVZ I’ll continue to use
As I mentioned on Monday, the damage done to the core indicators would be hard to overcome and that the intermediate term trend is now likely down. Since Monday things have only gotten worse. All of my core indicators dipped even deeper into the red. As a result, the core portfolio allocations are now fully hedged or 100% in cash. My market risk indicator has three of four components warning at the moment, but the forth is still positive. That leaves the volatility hedged portfolio 100% long. Here’s a complete list of the allocations: Long / Cash portfolio: 100% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 50% long high beta stocks and 50% short the S&P 500 index (or use SH) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long As an example of the broken intermediate term trend here’s a point and figure chart of the S&P 500 index. The damage done this week was pretty significant, but looking longer term there is still the possibility that once the current correction has ended we’ll
I don’t have my primary internet access at the moment so just a quick note about allocations. All of the core indicators are negative so the new allocations are as follows: Long / Cash: 100% cash Long / Short: 50% long high beta stocks and 50% short the S&P 500 index Volitality Hedge: 100% long I’ll do a full post when I get internet access.
When a big decline occurs on a single day it’s a good time to step back and look at how much damage was done to the intermediate and long term time frames. Yesterday’s market action was pretty horrific for a single day. It was enough to cause all of my core indicator categories to go negative. As you know, I wait until Friday before making any portfolio allocation changes, but the damage done yesterday will be hard to overcome. That means it is likely that the intermediate term trend is down (or that we could see another month or so of decline). The long term trend, however, is still in question. Here are a few charts that show both good an bad signs for the longer term trend. First is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation averages (DJIA and DJTA). While the transports have clearly broken down and signaled a Dow Theory non-confirmation, the industrials are still well within the bounds of a “normal” consolidation of the
Just a quick note. No portfolio changes this week. However, my core measures of market quality and strength have bounced above and below the zero line this week. As a result, it will probably take a sustained rally next week to keep them above zero. As always, make your own decisions based on your personal risk toleration. Have a happy new year!