Last week, I mentioned that some of my core indicator categories are getting over bought and when that happens it often fuels several more weeks of upward movement. It looks like we’re starting the next wave up. My core indicators continue to show strength, but there is one concerning thing. My core measures of risk fell slightly this week. That isn’t normal when the market is making new highs. This is the indicator category I’m watching most closely at the moment to indicate the rally is coming to an end.
My core market health indicators continue to show strength. Most notably, are the core measures of risk which are getting into over bought territory. This is often a good sign that results in a melt up that lasts several weeks. The last time this happened was the first week of October which resulted in a nice run followed by a bit of consolidation that should fuel the next run higher.
My core market health indicators are bouncing around as the market consolidates in a sideways pattern. This is healthy behavior and should resolve with another leg upward.
Last week, I said that we’ve got everything we need for the next leg of this bull market. This week we’re getting confirmation of the rally with all of my core market health indicators jumping substantially. Some of them are starting to get into overbought territory, but when this happens it often fuels the rally for several weeks before it ends. Enjoy the ride.
Over the past week, my core market health indicators mostly improved. Most significant is that my measures of market strength have now moved above zero. This changes the core portfolio allocations as follows: Long / Cash portfolio: 100% long Long / Short portfolio: 100% long high beta stocks Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long since 11/11/2016 Another thing of note is that we’ve been seeing broad based buying of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) again. If the ratio between the SPX Equal Weighted Index (SPXEW) and SPX can get back above its 20 week moving average it will be a very healthy sign. Since the first of the year, investors have favored mega cap stocks. We want to see the smaller stocks in SPX rallying faster than the mega caps as it will indicate broad based buying and increased tolerance for risk. Add to that, SPX looks like it’s now got a clear break above 2500 and we’ve got the recipe for a rally. Conclusion It looks
Just a quick update this week. Most of my core indicators improved, but no changes to the core portfolio allocations. My measures of market strength are still negative, but are just a whisper away from going positive. I suspect to see that happen in the next week or two.
Last week, I said you should get ready for a rally. This week my core market health indicators are telling us to get ready for a breakout above 2500 on the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Most of them improved and various measures of breath also improved. One breadth indicator that I’m watching closely is the percent of SPX stocks that are above their 200 day moving average. There are still about 32% of these stocks below their 200 dma. If SPX breaks above 2500 I expect this measure to rise quickly as money managers look for value as the market rallies.
Over the past two weeks, my market health indicators have bounced around a bit and while doing it have been compressing near the zero line. When this happens, an strong move often follows. At the moment, the odds favor the bulls. Get ready for a rally.
Just a quick note this week. No changes to the portfolio allocations. Most of my core indicators improved, which bodes well for this being a temporary dip rather than a long term top.
Over the past week, quite a lot of damage was done to my core market health indicators. Two of the categories are at risk of going negative if the market can’t rally next week. Most significant is my core measures of risk. They fell substantially over the past two weeks. This means that risk from core market internals is rising. Meanwhile, the most sensitive components of my market risk indicator aren’t showing the same type of warning. They’re still in the very healthy range. This indicates that risk in the market at this moment is from core market internals and not investor perception of risk or an event. If my core market risk indicators warn without significant movement toward a warning from my market risk indicator, it will be an unusual occurrence for a longer term top. Other times where this condition has happened resulted in short to intermediate term dips during a longer term bull market. Here are some dates: Mid 2004, spring 2005, late 2005, and early 2006 thru August