Over the past week, my core measures of market quality moved back above zero. During the same period my measures of market trend and strength surged higher as well. The strength in these indicators suggest that the market will rally into year end. Earning season could change the market’s opinion, but without major problems during the first few weeks I suspect we’ll be off to the races. The move in market quality changes the current core portfolio allocations as follows: Long / Cash portfolio: 80% long and 20% cash Long / Short portfolio: 90% long high beta stocks and 10% short the S&P 500 Index (or use the ETF SH) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 7/5/2016) Here is a chart that shows the core portfolio allocations over the past year. Green lines represent adding long exposure. Yellow is raising cash or adding hedges. Red is an aggressive hedge using mid term volatility. Another sign that market participants are expecting a year end rally comes from the ratio between the
Over the past week, my core market health indicators bounced around a bit. Most notably is that my core measures of the economy fell below zero. This results in a change in the core portfolio allocations as follows: Long / Cash portfolio: 60% long and 40% cash Long / Short portfolio: 80% long high beta stocks and 20% short the S&P 500 Index (or an ETF like SH) The Volatility hedged portfolio is not impacted by the core indicators so it is still 100% long (since 7/1/16) One other notable thing this week is my core measures of risk are still close to signaling a very bullish condition for the market. They aren’t being impacted by the small dip that started a couple of weeks ago which is a positive sign, but they haven’t moved into the “very bullish” territory yet either. This is the thing I’m watching most closely for signs of a strong rally into the end of the year.
Over the past week the majority of my core market health indicators improved. Most notably is the market strength category. It has finally pushed above zero, resulting in a change to the core portfolios. The new allocations are as follows. Long / Cash portfolio: 80% long and 20% cash Long / Short portfolio: 90% long high beta stocks and 10% short Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 7/1/2016) In early July, I highlighted some problems with leadership in the market. Most of those problems have been resolved. As you know, I’ve been watching the ratio between the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and the S&P 500 (SPX). It made a good break higher two weeks ago and is currently fueling the rally as NDX plays catch up to SPX. One thing that hasn’t fully resolved itself is the ratio between the S&P 500 Equal Weight index (SPXEW) and SPX. The current rally has this ratio moving sideways, which shows lackluster participation from the “smaller” big cap stocks in SPX. If the ratio
Last week we got a market risk warning due to the surprise of the Brexit vote. This week, that warning has been cleared as market participants realize it will take a couple of years to sort out… so they can wait until then to panic. My core market health indicators, with the exception of trend, improved last week. The overall numbers are still soft, but positive enough to change the portfolio allocations to the following. Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 80% long high beta stocks and 20% short the S&P 500 Index (or the ETF SH) Long / Cash portfolio: 60% long and 40% cash One thing of note that happened over the past few weeks is the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) created a new secondary high near 8110. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) also created a new secondary high near 18100. DJIA is above November 2015 secondary high, but DJTA is below all of its recent secondary highs. As a result, Dow
Just a quick note, my Market Risk Indicator is warning today. As a result, the portfolio allocations are now as follows: Volatility Hedged portfolio: 50% long and 50% hedged with mid term volatility (and ETF/ETN similar to VXZ) Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 50% long high beta stocks and 50% hedged with mid term volatility Long / Cash portfolio: 100% cash I suspect it will take a couple of weeks to see what the fallout of Brexit will be. Until the market has less risk the portfolios will remain hedged or in cash. FYI, the market risk warning takes precedence over my core market health indicators.
Over the past week all of my core market health indicators improved. Most notably are my measures of trend, which went positive. Measures of market strength almost made it into the green, but missed it by a fraction. I suspect that category will be positive next week (even with a bit of consolidation in the market). With measures of trend moving from negative to positive it changes the core portfolio allocations as follows: Long / Cash portfolio: 60% long and 40% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 80% long high beta stocks or ETFs and 20% short the S&P 500 Index Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 3/4/16) The chart below shows allocations changes over the past year. Green lines represent adding long exposure, yellow represents reducing exposure or adding a SPX short as a hedge, red lines represent aggressive hedging with volatility. It’s been a rocky road where we get aggressively hedged in a steep decline then the market makes a low shortly after without accelerating to the downside.
My market risk indicator cleared its warning this week. As a result, the volatility hedge will go 100% long. In addition, the core portfolios will remove their aggressive hedge and replace it with a short of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). My core market health indicators all improved with the exception of market quality. My measures of the economy improved enough to go positive which will change the core portfolio allocations a follows. Long / Cash portfolio: 20% long and 80% cash Long / Short portfolio: 60% long high beta stocks and 40% short the S&P 500 Index (or use the ETF SH) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long Below is a chart of recent market risk indicator signals. As I noted in January, the market risk indicator signals near inflection points where the market either turns back up quickly or accelerates to the downside. This signal has the same appearance as the 2012 and 2015 signals, where the market traded slightly lower after the signal, but the warning didn’t clear
Wow. What a week. Like the market all of my core health indicators got hammered. They are now all deep in negative territory. I’ll let the chart speak for itself. One thing of note is that my market risk indicator is now signalling. This changes the volatility hedged portfolio to 50% long and 50% hedged with mid term volatility (an ETF/ETN like VXZ) or dynamic volatility (XVZ). For official tracking purposes I use XVZ, but the instrument is thinly traded so it introduces problems in actual portfolio management. First is that thin trading means it is difficult to fill large trades at a good “market” price. Second is that in a swiftly declining market the bid may as much as 20% below the market so you’ll have difficulty getting out of the position (or rebalancing) when pure panic has set in. As a result, I personally use mid term volatility like VXZ instead of dynamic volatility. But, since the back test has been done with XVZ I’ll continue to use
As I mentioned on Monday, the damage done to the core indicators would be hard to overcome and that the intermediate term trend is now likely down. Since Monday things have only gotten worse. All of my core indicators dipped even deeper into the red. As a result, the core portfolio allocations are now fully hedged or 100% in cash. My market risk indicator has three of four components warning at the moment, but the forth is still positive. That leaves the volatility hedged portfolio 100% long. Here’s a complete list of the allocations: Long / Cash portfolio: 100% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 50% long high beta stocks and 50% short the S&P 500 index (or use SH) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long As an example of the broken intermediate term trend here’s a point and figure chart of the S&P 500 index. The damage done this week was pretty significant, but looking longer term there is still the possibility that once the current correction has ended we’ll
The chart of my core market health indicators says it all. Weak economy and every other category near zero. This week my measures of trend fell into negative territory, while the other categories are barely hanging on. It appears that the 2020 area on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is a tipping point. The market needs to bounce here or I suspect the rest of the categories will fall below zero next week. Due to the negative reading from measures of trend, the core portfolio allocations change this week. Here are the new allocations: Long / Cash portfolio: 60% long and 40% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 80% long high beta stocks and 20% short the S&P 500 Index (or use the ETF SH) Currently, two of the four components of my market risk indicator are warning. A third is waffling and could warn at any moment. The fourth is well away from a signal, but a sharp sell off would probably take it negative too, which would bring