My market risk indicator cleared its warning this week. As a result, the volatility hedge will go 100% long. In addition, the core portfolios will remove their aggressive hedge and replace it with a short of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). My core market health indicators all improved with the exception of market quality. My measures of the economy improved enough to go positive which will change the core portfolio allocations a follows. Long / Cash portfolio: 20% long and 80% cash Long / Short portfolio: 60% long high beta stocks and 40% short the S&P 500 Index (or use the ETF SH) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long Below is a chart of recent market risk indicator signals. As I noted in January, the market risk indicator signals near inflection points where the market either turns back up quickly or accelerates to the downside. This signal has the same appearance as the 2012 and 2015 signals, where the market traded slightly lower after the signal, but the warning didn’t clear
Wow. What a week. Like the market all of my core health indicators got hammered. They are now all deep in negative territory. I’ll let the chart speak for itself. One thing of note is that my market risk indicator is now signalling. This changes the volatility hedged portfolio to 50% long and 50% hedged with mid term volatility (an ETF/ETN like VXZ) or dynamic volatility (XVZ). For official tracking purposes I use XVZ, but the instrument is thinly traded so it introduces problems in actual portfolio management. First is that thin trading means it is difficult to fill large trades at a good “market” price. Second is that in a swiftly declining market the bid may as much as 20% below the market so you’ll have difficulty getting out of the position (or rebalancing) when pure panic has set in. As a result, I personally use mid term volatility like VXZ instead of dynamic volatility. But, since the back test has been done with XVZ I’ll continue to use
As I mentioned on Monday, the damage done to the core indicators would be hard to overcome and that the intermediate term trend is now likely down. Since Monday things have only gotten worse. All of my core indicators dipped even deeper into the red. As a result, the core portfolio allocations are now fully hedged or 100% in cash. My market risk indicator has three of four components warning at the moment, but the forth is still positive. That leaves the volatility hedged portfolio 100% long. Here’s a complete list of the allocations: Long / Cash portfolio: 100% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 50% long high beta stocks and 50% short the S&P 500 index (or use SH) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long As an example of the broken intermediate term trend here’s a point and figure chart of the S&P 500 index. The damage done this week was pretty significant, but looking longer term there is still the possibility that once the current correction has ended we’ll
The chart of my core market health indicators says it all. Weak economy and every other category near zero. This week my measures of trend fell into negative territory, while the other categories are barely hanging on. It appears that the 2020 area on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is a tipping point. The market needs to bounce here or I suspect the rest of the categories will fall below zero next week. Due to the negative reading from measures of trend, the core portfolio allocations change this week. Here are the new allocations: Long / Cash portfolio: 60% long and 40% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 80% long high beta stocks and 20% short the S&P 500 Index (or use the ETF SH) Currently, two of the four components of my market risk indicator are warning. A third is waffling and could warn at any moment. The fourth is well away from a signal, but a sharp sell off would probably take it negative too, which would bring
I’m seeing several signs that suggest the market is getting ready to make a breakout to new all time highs. Over the past few weeks my core indicators didn’t deteriorate much as the market consolidated. This week they all strengthened with the exception of the economy category. Most notable is that my measures of market quality moved back above zero again. That changes the core portfolio allocations. The current allocations are below: Long / Cash portfolio: 80% long and 20% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 90% long high beta stocks and 10% short the S&P 500 Index (or the ETF SH) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 10/9/15) One thing I’m seeing that suggests we’re headed to new highs is the Trade Followers sentiment indicator which is calculated from the text of tweets about the S&P 500 Index. 7 day momentum is turning up from a level that has historically been an oversold level during bullish trends. These upturns are generally associated with a resumption of the uptrend in
Over the past week my core measures of market quality, trend, and strength all rose significantly. Market trend and strength moved above zero which results in changes to the core portfolio allocations. Market quality is just barely below zero and will almost certainly go positive next week (even with some consolidation in the market). Here are the new allocations: Long / Cash portfolio: 60% long and 40% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 80% long high beta stocks and 20% short the S&P 500 Index (or use the ETF SH) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 10/9/15) As always make your own decisions about your own portfolio allocations based on your personal risk tolerance. Enjoy the weekend everyone!
Over the past week most of my core measures of market health improved. Most notably is that my measures of risk went positive. This changes the portfolio allocations as follows: Long / Cash portfolio: 20% long and 80% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 60% long high beta stocks and 40% short the S&P 500 Index (or the ETF SH) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (from 10/9/15) Another thing of note this week is that the Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX) is back above 60%. This reduces the risk of a steep or waterfall type decline. Here’s a post that explains the risk associated with poor breadth in the market.
As I mentioned on Tuesday, my market risk indicator cleared during the week and the positive readings have held throughout the week. However, my core market health indicators are all still below zero. This changes the portfolio allocations as follows. Long / Cash portfolio: 100% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 50% long stocks I believe will outperform in and uptrend and 50% short the S&P 500 Index Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long As was the case in mid August the core indicators don’t like the current market internals, but the perception of risk is low. You’ll need to assess your own needs and risk tolerance to decide how much of a hedge (if any) you leave on your portfolio. If you’d rather use an ETF for the long portion of your portfolio here are some ideas on how to find one. Look at the comments too as a reader found several ETFs that met the high beta criteria. At the end of August I wrote a post explaining why
With the sell off this morning I’m taking the opportunity provided by a spike in volatility to take some profit from the hedge and soften it in the Long / Short Hedged portfolio. I’m taking all profit from the hedge and buying new long positions with it. In addition, I’m selling 1/3 of the aggressive hedge (mid term put options, VXZ, or XVZ) and buying a short of the S&P 500 Index (or using SH). Usually, the longs in the portfolio have dropped enough that the new allocations are fairly close to a 50% long and 50% hedged position after a rebalance. But due to the large increase in volatility without much price damage in the market since 8/21/15 (when my market risk indicator signaled) the new allocations have a slightly smaller hedge than is normal after a rebalance. The new allocations for the Long / Short portfolio are as follows. 53% Long stocks that I believe will outperform in an uptrend (high beta stocks) 15% Short the S&P 500
Just a quick note about the portfolio allocations and the current market health indicator readings. All of my core health indicator categories rose this week, but they’re still mired in negative territory. In addition, my market risk indicator is still signaling. As a result, the core portfolios remain aggressively hedged with an instrument that benefits from higher volatility (mid term put options, mid term volatility — VXZ, dynamic volatility — XVZ, etc.). I’ll do an in depth post with my thoughts on the market later today that will highlight VXZ. Here’s a preview chart. Notice that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has retraced it’s decline from last Friday’s close, but VXZ is still up 15% from Friday’s close. Volatility begets volatility…which is why mid term volatility makes a good hedge during fast moving markets.