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Home Portfolio Performance Archive for category "Long Cash Performance"
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2013 Portfolio Performance

2013 was a decent, but not great year for the Downside Hedge portfolios.  The hedged portfolio performed the best (which is normal in an uptrend) gaining nearly 25% on the year. In contrast, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) gained roughly 30% for the year.  The under performance of the hedged portfolio is a result of being hedged (to as much as 50%) early in the year.  From late May the portfolio only had a few instances of hedging while at the same time the longs in the portfolio had their largest gains and outperformed SPX which allowed the portfolio to catch up somewhat.  For official tracking purposes I use a couple of ETFs that have fairly high beta as the longs.  I’m very comfortable with the gains considering the fact that the portfolio is designed to catch most of the upside, but protect against catastrophic losses. Below is a performance chart of the hedged portfolio. The long / cash portfolios substantially under performed the S&P 500 index with the core

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Market Showing Healthy Signs – Adding Long Exposure

Stock Market Internal Health

  Over the past week most of our core market health indicators improved.  Our measures of the economy are still negative, but improving slowly.  Our measures of risk showed some weakness that signals investors are getting a bit more concerned about the market.  However, we believe that this is a normal condition when the market stalls rather than an indication of substantially lower prices. Our measures of market quality, trend, and strength jumped substantially this week.  It is interesting that our measures of trend followed quality and strength in going positive especially since the rally out of the November lows has trended so strongly.  It is an indication of how odd this rally has been from a underlying technical perspective. The positive changes in market trend is causing a change in our core portfolio allocations.  Our Long / Cash strategies are now 80% long and 20% cash.  Our Hedged portfolio is now 90% long and 10% short (using a simple short of the S&P 500 Index — or the ETF

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Long / Cash Portfolio Performance 2012

Long / Cash Portfolio Performance

For the year 2012 our Core Long / Cash portfolio gained 5.42%.  For tracking purposes we simply use the S&P 500 Index (SPX) as the long portion of the portfolio, however, you can use the core portfolio signals to increase or decrease exposure to an actively managed portfolio of stocks. Our Long / Cash portfolio that uses our market risk indicator  gained 7.0% in 2012. It outperformed or Core portfolio due to a couple of instances where it went to cash just before a market decline.  As expected, for a year where the market is in a choppy uptrend the two Long / Cash portfolios under performed SPX.  We feel both portfolios had a good year considering the possible tail risk events in 2012. The chart above compares SPX to our two strategies.  The black line represents SPX, the green line represents our Core Long / Cash strategy, and the red line represents our Long / Cash strategy incorporating our market risk indicator. If you look closely at the chart

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