The Twitter Top 10 portfolio is up .52% from last Friday and up 30.68% from the first Friday of the year. So far this month there are no real out performers or under performers. The largest gains and losses are in the 4% area. Below is a performance chart and details of this month’s holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 12/6/2013 $YHOO 335 38.86 13018.10 39.7 13299.50 2.16% $BAC 859 15.16 13022.44 15.22 13073.98 0.40% $PFE 413 31.54 13026.02 30.25 12493.25 -4.09% $GMCR 182 71.30 12976.60 72.48 13191.36 1.65% $GOLD 199 65.44 13022.56 64.26 12787.74 -1.80% $SINA 168 77.31 12988.08 79 13272.00 2.19% $SSYS 111 117.00 12987.00 119.79 13296.69 2.38% $BIDU 77 168.71 12990.67 170 13090.00 0.76% $JNJ 130 94.44 12277.20 91.55 11901.50 -3.06% $ZNGA 3405 3.99 13585.95 4.16 14164.80 4.26% Cash 117.58 117.58 Totals 130012.20 130688.40 0.52%
At the close on 12/12/13 a buy signal was issued for Yelp (YELP). The stock has consolidated fro a few months and is now back above its 50 day moving average. When it reached that point sentiment from the Twitter stream broke above its down trend line. This confirms the current up move and increases the odds that the stock will move higher from here. One thing to note is that the uptrend line in smoothed sentiment isn’t very steep. This makes the signal a bit weak and also won’t provide a good exit point so be sure to calculate profit and loss targets.
The consolidation warning for Netflix (NFLX) issued on 12/6/13 has ended. Let this be another reminder not to trade against the market…especially with momentum stocks.
Below is a chart with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on StockTwits for the week ending 12/10/13. Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 12/10/13.
Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 12/10/13. Oops. Just noticed that I dropped the Twitter data into the StockTwits chart…but it really is the bearish scores from Twitter. Sorry.
Below are charts with the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 12/10/13. Oops. I dropped the Twitter data into my StockTwits chart…but it really is the most active score from the Twitter stream. Sorry for the bad label.
Breadth for the 50 most active stocks on Twitter has reclaimed the highs of the year. The recent strength is a result of the number of stocks in a clear down trend decreasing over the past three weeks. The number of stocks in a clear uptrend has been holding steady over that time period. Below is a breadth chart compared to the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and also chart showing a breakdown of the status categories.
Twitter sentiment for Netflix (NFLX) and Priceline (PCLN) issued consolidation warnings at the close on Friday. Sentiment for both stocks has been diverging from price and has broken their confirming uptrend lines. Please note these are not sell signals. Rather warning that the price may trade sideways to down to consolidate recent gains.
Over the past week several of the indicators I watch deteriorated. Our market health indicators that govern our core portfolio allocations compressed toward the zero line. They continue to paint a picture of cautious optimism, but with some jitters. The most concerning thing I saw was that a small move down in price brought with it a quick increase in the perception of risk. Investors are dancing close to the door. It appears that they don’t want to risk the gains from a very good year. Adding weight to the argument our Investor Contentment index has been negative and declining over the past three weeks while our Market Stability index, although positive, has been declining as well. Our Twitter sentiment index for volatility (VIX) has issued a buy signal indicating that traders on Twitter believe that volatility is likely to rise in the near future. This signal comes after four touches on the smoothed sentiment down trend line that was confirming lower volatility. Previous signals this year have been early,
The Twitter Top 10 Portfolio is up 2.72% this month and 30% from the first Friday of the year. Below are the picks for December. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Zynga (ZNGA) were in the November portfolio and will be held again this month. The rest of the stocks are new this month. YHOO, BAC, PFE, GMCR, GOLD, SINA, SSYS, BIDU, JNJ, ZNGA Here are the next five stocks in the most bullish list as of yesterday’s close. M, HIMX, ARNA, QCOM, LVS Below is a performance chart for the year. I’ll update this post with the details of gains and losses for the November’s picks after the close today…or sometime over the weekend. Note: at the close on 12/6/13 the portfolio was up 2.37% for the month. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 11/1/2013 $F 721 16.89 12177.69 16.7 12040.70 -1.12% $DDD 193 63.01 12160.93 75.38 14548.34 19.63% $ZNGA 3405 3.58 12189.90 3.99 13585.95 11.45% $JNJ 130 93.37 12138.10