The Twitter Top 10 portfolio looks to be turning the corner and making a bottom. It is slightly outperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPX) this month. Micron Technology, up nearly 7% and several other modestly positive stocks are responsible for the gains. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 6/6/2014 $AAPL 120 92.22 11066.40 91.47 10976.40 -0.81% $GOOG 20 556.33 11126.60 577.67 11553.40 3.84% $CSCO 446 24.83 11074.18 24.75 11038.50 -0.32% $GMCR 90 122.07 10986.30 123.95 11155.50 1.54% $GOGO 600 18.48 11088.00 18.82 11292.00 1.84% $KORS 117 94.33 11036.61 90.17 10549.89 -4.41% $AGN 64 165.06 10563.84 171.25 10960.00 3.75% $F 650 17.08 11102.00 17.24 11206.00 0.94% $MU 415 29.54 12259.10 31.60 13114.00 6.97% $DIS 131 84.61 11083.91 84.73 11099.63 0.14% Cash 95.69 95.69 Totals 111482.63 113041.01 1.40%
This month the StockTwits Top 10 portfolio is catching back up to the S&P 500 Index. In the chip stocks, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has given back its gains while Micron (MU) is holding up reasonably well. The big standout in the portfolio is SunPower (SPWR) up over 22%. Below is a performance chart and details of the current month’s holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 6/6/2014 $GOOG 19 556.33 10570.27 578.04 10982.76 3.90% $AMD 2586 4.06 10499.16 4.07 10525.02 0.25% $KORS 111 94.33 10470.63 90.19 10011.09 -4.39% $MSFT 253 41.48 10494.44 41.7 10550.10 0.53% $MU 355 29.54 10486.70 31.56 11203.80 6.84% $NOK 1332 7.88 10496.16 7.6 10123.20 -3.55% $DIS 124 84.61 10491.64 84.71 10504.04 0.12% $SPWR 296 33.78 9998.88 41.39 12251.44 22.53% $PFE 329 29.42 9679.18 29.58 9731.82 0.54% $NKE 137 76.23 10443.51 78.06 10694.22 2.40% Cash 48.99 48.99 Totals 103679.56 106626.48 2.84%
A few momentum stocks are starting to show up in the list of stocks that are maintaining positive support from the StockTwits stream over the past month. Compare the list above to the stocks that have maintained positive momentum on StockTwits over the past three months. Notice the list below is much more defensive.
Over the past week the market rallied, but our core market health indicators didn’t participate. In fact, all of them except for our measures of risk turned down. As a result, we’re still 30% short in our hedged portfolio and only 40% long in the Long/Cash portfolios. One thing of note this week is that our market risk indicator is diverging from our core measures of risk. Our core measures of risk have made it into over bought territory while our market risk indicator is well below that level. Historically, over bought readings have usually been followed by a dip of more than 10% within a month or two. Early 1999 and 2013 were exceptions. There were four over bought readings in 2013 and three in 1999 that did not result in a good dip. Between 2000 and 2012 there were three times our core measures of risk were over bought. They were January 2004, April 2010, January through April 2011. I’m not too concerned about this indicator at the
Over the past three weeks the sectors with the most support from the Twitter stream have been Energy, Consumer Durables, and Technology. I’m sure you’re all aware of energy and technology showing strength this year, but consumer durables have been flying under the radar. It appears that almost all of the stocks in the sector are getting support from traders on Twitter. Here’s a chart of the strongest sectors over the past three weeks. Here are the stocks in the consumer durables sector that are getting the most positive comments on Twitter. Here’s a list of stocks that have fairly high momentum/sentiment scores on the Twitter stream over the past week even if they didn’t make it into the strongest stocks list. If you’re planning on rotating with the market into durables the two stock lists should give you plenty of ideas.
Our Twitter Sentiment Indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is once again suggesting that more chop is in the near term future. Last week the daily indicator fell with the market, but had mostly positive readings. This indicates that market participants aren’t too concerned about the current weakness. Friday brought about more concern with a reading of -15 as traders tweeted about the situation in Iraq, oil prices, and extremely high bullish sentiment from various sources (AAII and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index). Smoothed sentiment continues to decline as the excitement resulting from a break above the 1900 level on SPX has started to fade. It continues to paint a negative divergence with price which suggests there may be more weakness ahead. The weakness should be contained if the indicator stays above zero and its confirming uptrend line. Support and resistance levels generated from the Twitter stream continue to paint the same pattern from the first of the year where traders are reluctant to target higher prices. It has
Below is a list of stocks that have had consistent support from the StockTwits community over the past three months. It’s a great list for trend followers who like to buy dips.
The strongest stocks on Twitter (have the most support from people tweeting) over the past two weeks are mostly technology and consumer stocks.
Below is a list of the strongest stocks on StockTwits over the past two weeks. Notice the number of Tech stocks.
The sell signal issued for Gold (GLD) on 3/19/14 from quantified StockTwits messages has ended. The downtrend line in quantified messages has finally be broken to the upside. Unfortunately for gold bulls it didn’t happen after a strong positive divergence with price. As a result, the sell signal is merely closed rather than flipping to a buy signal. For aggressive traders who believe in GLD there are other factors that might warrant a tightly controlled long trade. Notice that GLD had a strong volume washout in June of 2013. Then a double bottom in December 2013 on lower volume near the 114 level. That was followed by a very strong rally up to the descending trend line that has been in place since the peak in late 2012. It is logical for the ETF to be turned back at that trend line again, but since the double bottom has held for nearly six months the odds are increased that any retest of the 114 area will hold. So a long