It’s been another bad week for the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio. This month it picked two stocks that are seriously under performing. GT Advanced Technology (GTAT) down 21% and Zynga (ZNGA) down more than 9%. Over the past few months the portfolio has been hit hard as one stock after another blows up. This month is more of the same, but has a bit of support from a rotation to some defensive stocks that have held up. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 5/2/2014 $MU 415 26.31 10918.65 26.79 11117.85 1.82% $AGN 64 169.91 10874.24 162.17 10378.88 -4.56% $INTC 413 26.41 10907.33 26.28 10853.64 -0.49% $CELG 74 147.40 10907.60 145.55 10770.70 -1.26% $RAD 1387 7.87 10915.69 7.53 10444.11 -4.32% $GTAT 761 16.91 12868.51 13.41 10201.21 -20.73% $ZNGA 2828 3.86 10916.08 3.51 9926.28 -9.07% $XLE 116 93.72 10871.52 93.72 10871.52 0.00% $JNJ 110 99.31 10924.10 100.97 11106.70 1.67% $GE
Over the past week the StockTwits Top 10 Portfolio dipped 2.1%. Zynga (ZNGA) is the biggest laggard in the portfolio down 8.3% over the week. The other stocks aren’t showing the any upside momentum which speaks to the general state of the market. If you look at the stocks held this month you’ll see that they are large and mostly defensive in nature. If these stocks start to show weakness it will probably spell trouble for the general market. Below is a performance chart and details of the current month’s holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 5/2/2014 $ZNGA 2625 3.86 10132.50 3.54 9292.50 -8.29% $AA 881 13.72 12087.32 13.31 11726.11 -2.99% $SPWR 296 33.98 10058.08 33.1 9797.60 -2.59% $JNJ 102 99.31 10129.62 101.17 10319.34 1.87% $PFE 329 30.75 10116.75 29.09 9570.61 -5.40% $GE 410 26.68 10938.80 26.45 10844.50 -0.86% $HD 127 79.40 10083.80 77.44 9834.88 -2.47% $AIG 193 52.35 10103.55 52.24 10082.32 -0.21% $QCOM 128 78.99 10110.72 79.4
Sentiment from StockTwits for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) bounced from its confirming up trend line yesterday. It is trying to hold trend and avoid a consolidation warning. The next few days will be critical. In addition, sentiment from Twitter for the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) has been compressing in a triangle. Generally the break of a triangle points the direction for the next move. Once again, the next few days will be critical for the market.
After a long drought waiting for buy signals (or even some counter trend bounce signals) we finally got one from VISA (V) today. As the stock has been consolidating in a range over the past month sentiment from the Twitter stream has been rising. Today it rose enough to break the down trend line that had been confirming VISA’s dip in price. This creates a buy signal. One thing to note is that the new uptrend line in sentiment is very steep. That means the stock will have to get going or this trade will close quickly. The steep uptrend will also limit the length of the trade. Here’s a link with more details on how we trade stocks with Twitter sentiment.
Below are charts with the weakness/bearish intensity scores for the weakest stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 5/6/14.
Below are charts with the strength/bullish intensity scores for the strongest stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 5/6/14.
Below are charts with the bullish/strength scores for the strongest stocks on StockTwits for the week and month ending 5/6/14.
Below are charts with the total intensity scores of the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 5/6/14.
For the last few months the major indexes have been diverging from each other. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) have traveled sideways in a range, the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 Index (RUT) fell to their 200 day moving averages and bounced back to their 50 dma. As you must know by now this is a result of rotation out of the high fliers from 2013 into large cap and value stocks. The rotation caused damage in Nasdaq and RUT while at the same time kept SPX and DJIA in the range (DJIA made a marginal new high this week, but not a clean break of the range). With Nasdaq and RUT stuck in the middle of moving averages and SPX and DJIA stuck in a range it’s decision time. Over the next few weeks the market will most likely turn over and start a down trend or break higher out of the current range. I wish I could tell you which
Over the past month the StockTwits Top 10 portfolio recovered strongly and is now ahead of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the year. The portfolio is up 4.3% while SPX is up 2.8% from the first Friday of the year. It’s the first Friday of the month so it’s time for new picks. Here is a chart of the stocks that have the most support from the StockTwits community over the past month. The portfolio holds the top 10 each month. Below is a performance chart and details of the April holdings. Note: I’ll update the exact prices sometime over the weekend. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $AMD 2712 4.01 10875.12 4.12 11173.44 2.74% $MSFT 237 39.87 9449.19 39.69 9406.53 -0.45% $MU 419 22.58 9461.02 26.31 11023.89 16.52% $AA 881 12.63 11127.03 13.72 12087.32 8.63% $F 587 16.13 9468.31 15.9 9333.30 -1.43% $Z 104 91.00 9464.00 106.86 11113.44 17.43% $T 282 33.55 9461.10 35.63 10047.66 6.20%