- Twitter Stock Market Support and Resistance Archive

No End in Sight

Published on May 18, 2013 by DownsideHedge in Featured, Market Comments, Twitter Sector Sentiment, Twitter Stock Sentiment, Twitter Support and Resistance

Twitter sentiment support and resistance for the stock market

Over the past week all of our core market health indicators improved, however, none of them improved enough to change our core portfolio allocations. Market Positives We continue to see price move higher in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) while perceptions of risk go lower. Our measures of risk are signalling that investors and traders have little long term concern. Our measures of the economy, market quality, trend, and strength all improved late this week, while measures of market breadth are at historical levels. This signals that even reluctant buyers are entering the market. Our investor contentment index shot substantially higher over the past two weeks which is another sign of money flowing into stocks. Our Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is painting moderately high readings on up days and fairly flat reading on down days. This is a positive sign for a market making new highs. Even though there continues to be a very large number of tweets concerned with overbought conditions there are enough

Tags: spx

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Apple Setting up to Revisit its Lows

Published on May 15, 2013 by DownsideHedge in Twitter Stock Sentiment, Twitter Support and Resistance

Over the last three months we’ve seen nothing but chasing by traders in Apple (AAPL). Our Twitter sentiment indicator for AAPL has almost exactly mirrored the movements in the price of the stock. When this happens it is usually a result of the the majority of the Tweets simply referring to the movement in price rather than some “rational” reasons that the stock should move either up or down. In addition, we see a lot of tweets from traders stating that they’re buying or selling in the direction the stock is moving. Today was one of those days where AAPL started to sell off and sellers just piled on as the day went by. The intensity of tweets spiked as people talked about their selling and made other negative comments about the stock. This isn’t a good sign as it is continuing the pattern of the entire down trend where twitter intensity dries up when the stock rallies and spikes when the stock moves down. Short story, people are more

Tags: aapl

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Breakout Holds

Published on May 12, 2013 by DownsideHedge in Featured, Market Comments, Twitter Sector Sentiment, Twitter Stock Sentiment, Twitter Support and Resistance

Just a quick update on our Twitter indicators this weekend due to Mother’s Day. Our Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) continues to confirm the breakout above 1600, however, the daily indicator is showing some lower prints. As the market pushed higher above the 1625 range we started to see a lot of tweets indicating traders thought the market was overbought. Those tweets mentioned technical indicators such as Bollinger bands, trend channels, the McClellan oscillator, and the distance the market is above its moving averages. This suggests that traders believe the market is due for a short term pull back. Smoothed sentiment is holding up well because bullish and bearish sentiment is fairly evenly matched even with all the mentions of overbought conditions. The trend of smoothed sentiment is up and it is above zero indicating that market participants have an overall bullish bias. Twitter support and resistance levels are showing a small layer of support at 1625 on SPX and a strong floor below the market

Tags: spx, xlb, xle, xlf, xli, xlk, xlp, xlu, xlv, xly

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The Canaries Lived

Published on May 8, 2013 by DownsideHedge in Market Comments, Twitter Stock Sentiment, Twitter Support and Resistance

We first wrote about the canaries in the coal mine that were warning of a correction in February. As recent as last week the canaries were still warning. Not so any longer. The canaries lived. Most of the time when a market gets thin at new highs a correction follows, but once in a while the thin market resolves itself with rotation. That’s what we’re seeing now. The defensive sectors that have led all year are starting to under perform the broad market and the stocks that have lagged are being bought. Our Twitter support and resistance levels had pegged 1600 on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) as the most important resistance we’ve seen since we started tracking it. There were a huge number of tweets that targeted that level. The rotation in stocks since the break out above 1600 highlights how important that level was. People who were defensive are starting to trim those positions and others who were under invested are buying technology, financials, and industrials. Even the

Tags: bac, c, jpm, ms, spx

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Forced to Believe Price

Published on May 4, 2013 by DownsideHedge in Market Comments, Twitter Sector Sentiment, Twitter Stock Sentiment, Twitter Support and Resistance

Over the past week our core market health indicators all improved, but not enough to change any of our portfolio allocations. Our indicators still don’t believe the market can sustain higher prices. Market Positives Once again price is the winner. The market continues to move higher and we can’t argue with it. All of the major averages moved to new highs this week. Even our last hold out, the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) finally surpassed the September 2012 peak. Our measures of risk remain positive which tells us market participants are not concerned about a significant draw down. Measures of breadth are starting to resolve the negative divergences which help to confirm the higher prices in the indexes. Our investor contentment index made it back into positive territory this week which is a sign that investors are adding exposure as the market moves to new highs. Our Twitter Sentiment Indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) cleared its consolidation warning and is confirming the move higher with strong readings in

Tags: spx

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Indecision Continues

Published on April 27, 2013 by DownsideHedge in Market Comments, Twitter Sector Sentiment, Twitter Stock Sentiment, Twitter Support and Resistance

Over the past week our core market health indicators improved slightly, but didn’t move enough to change our portfolio allocations. Market Positives Once again the market ignored bad news. It won’t matter until it matters… What else can we say? Our measures of risk are still positive, but didn’t recover with the move up in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) last week. Market participants are starting to recognize that a small dip could turn into something larger. Nevertheless, risk levels are positive which gives the market room to rise. Mixed Signals The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) finally recovered with SPX, however it is still below the peak made last September so we consider it mixed. The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) regained its 50 day moving average, but has a very short term series of lower highs and lower lows. These conditions need to clear before we’ll believe higher prices in the broader market. Measures of breadth like the percent of stocks above their 50 and 200 day moving averages continue

Tags: ndx, rut, spx, xlb, xle, xlf, xli, xlk, xlp, xlu, xlv, xly

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Inflection Point

Published on April 20, 2013 by DownsideHedge in Market Comments, Twitter Sector Sentiment, Twitter Stock Sentiment, Twitter Support and Resistance

We’re starting to see a few scratches on this Teflon market. Our core market health indicators fell significantly this past week even though the move in price was minor. We normally don’t see them with such negative readings when price has only fallen about 4%. None of them moved enough to change our portfolio allocations, but the amount of internal damage is disconcerting. Market Positives The S&P 500 Index fell below its 50 day moving average, but didn’t stay there. This is one more sign that buyers continue to step up when the market dips. Large moves down in price one day are met with a rally the next showing the conviction of people who are under invested. Our measures of market risk are still positive, but they deteriorated sharply this past week. Our market risk indicator isn’t close to a signal yet, which suggests complacency by market participants. Mixed Signals Measures of breadth such as the stocks above their 200 day moving average are starting to diverge from price.

Tags: ndx, spx, xlb, xle, xlf, xli, xlk, xlp, xlu, xlv, xly

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Apple Showing Signs of Capitulation

Published on April 18, 2013 by DownsideHedge in Twitter Stock Sentiment, Twitter Support and Resistance

We’ve been following Apple’s sentiment among traders on Twitter from its bad earnings report in late July 2012. Here’s a blog post where we consolidate our commentary for AAPL across several months. Lately we’ve seen some developments in sentiment that are interesting. From the first of April when the stock was trading back down to 420 and bouncing the volume and intensity of tweets has fallen dramatically. This suggests that traders are giving up on the stock and can be the first sign of capitulation. The intensity of tweets continues to get quiet on rallies and rise when the stock falls which is a sign that traders although bullish, aren’t excited or confident in their opinions. On Wednesday when AAPL broke below 420 it printed -36 on the daily indicator. This is the lowest print ever for the stock which is another sign of capitulation. We’re finally seeing people give up on the stock en masse and confirm lower prices in their tweets on a daily basis. This is a

Tags: aapl

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Teflon Market

Published on April 13, 2013 by DownsideHedge in Market Comments, Twitter Sector Sentiment, Twitter Stock Sentiment, Twitter Support and Resistance

This past week the market proved itself once again by refusing to let bad news stick. Our core market health indicators were mixed, but generally improved. This leaves our portfolio allocations the same. Market Positives Once again the most positive thing in the market is price. Every one percent dip seems to be met with buyers. Bad news continues to be seen as a buying opportunity and market participants don’t believe there is substantial risk to the downside. Ironically, the the technical indicator that is working best is price. Since the November low a 3.5% trailing stop would have been the only thing you would have needed to stay on the right side of the market. Our measures of market risk have been a good guide as well, but we never feel comfortable relying solely on measures of risk. This is because risk almost always enters the market suddenly and often doesn’t warn until price has already fallen. It is for this reason that we rely on a variety of

Tags: spx, xlb, xle, xlf, xli, xlk, xlp, xlu, xlv, xly

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Market Overview 3/29/13 – Waiting in the Range

Published on March 29, 2013 by DownsideHedge in Bonds, Market Comments, Twitter Sector Sentiment, Twitter Stock Sentiment, Twitter Support and Resistance

This past week saw the S&P 500 Index breaking out to new all time closing highs. All time intra-day highs are just a few points away just above 1576. However, our core market health indicators continue to deteriorate. These aren’t the type of internals we like to see near market tops. Our indicators are telling us that market participants are getting cautious…which makes us cautious too. Our Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is starting to show some strength but without much enthusiasm. Although daily sentiment is painting higher lows and has a good uptrend line it isn’t acting like it should when price breaks out to new highs. Thursday’s move came with a higher intensity of tweets (volume and scores), but the aggregated score for the day was only +10. The move above 1530 on SPX at the first of March is more characteristic of confirmation of a break to new highs. It came with a print of +21 on the day of the break out signaling

Tags: spx, tlt, xlb, xle, xlf, xli, xlk, xlp, xlu, xlv, xly

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No End in Sight

Apple Setting up to Revisit its Lows

Breakout Holds

The Canaries Lived

Forced to Believe Price

Indecision Continues

Inflection Point

Apple Showing Signs of Capitulation

Teflon Market

Market Overview 3/29/13 – Waiting in the Range

Twitter Support and Resistance
S&P 500 Index

Support: 1650 and 1600

Resistance: 1665 and 1700

Current Market Conditions

Twitter Sector Sentiment

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