We’re watching emerging markets closely here looking for signs that the world economy is strengthening. EEM is a good instrument to watch for clues to the economy because it is heavily weighted to financials, information technology (chips), energy, and materials. These are all sectors that do well when the economy is growing. In addition, EEM is weighted to Asia and Brazil, two areas that are sensitive to world economic conditions.
EEM has been in a down trend for well over a year even as SPX has worked its way higher. In March as SPX was breaking above the 2011 highs, EEM tested its down trend line. It was a failure that signaled the world economy was weakening. It appears that EEM will test the down trend line again if SPX makes new highs above 1422. We’re watching EEM closely because a break above the trend line would be one sign the economy has some underlying strength. Another failure or non confirmation by EEM would point to a continued stall in the economy.