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Market Health Still Weak

Over the past week our core market health indicators mostly fell. The notable exception is our measures of trend. They continued to move higher in the face of a falling market. This is an encouraging sign even though almost every indicator we track in the intermediate term is mired in negative territory.

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Another measure that has been supportive for the market is cumulative NYSE Advance / Declines (NYAD). More stocks continue to rise than fall on a weekly basis. This is creating a positive divergence with price. Meanwhile the percent of stocks above their 200 day moving average continues to weaken.

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It remains to be seen which breadth indicator will win. Until we get a resolution we’re hedged in the core portfolios. The volatility hedge isn’t seeing enough risk in the market to be hedged. It’s still 100% long.

 
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