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Breadth Still Healthy

Published on March 3, 2015 by in Market Comments

There really isn’t anything significant happening in market internals lately. From all appearances the market wants to go higher, but probably needs to consolidate a bit before another rally. If the market dips keep an eye on breadth to see if anything changes from bullish to bearish for early warning of a significant decline. Here’s an update of some of the breadth measures I follow. They all have healthy readings, but with a few nuances.

The NYSE Advance / Decline line (NYAD) is confirming the recent move to new highs. This is the most healthy sign of breadth I’m watching.

150303nyad

Breadth between the most bullish stocks on Twitter and StockTwits and the most bearish stocks is also showing readings that are consistent with a bullish trend. However, it is now at levels that have often preceded a short term decline.

150303breadth

The bullish percent index (BPSPX) has historically strong readings above 60%, but is down from the giddy readings during the rally in 2013. The highs over the past six months are being contained by the lows of 2013. I consider the current reading closer to “normal” than the 2013 prints.

150303bpspx

The percent of stocks in the S&P 500 Index above their 200 day moving average (SPX200) has been making lower highs since July of 2014. Like BPSPX this indicator is coming down from extreme highs into a more normal range.

150303spx200

Bottom line, breadth is healthy, but the market may need a rest before continuing higher. Watch breadth to feel confident any decline will be contained.

 
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2 Comments  comments 

2 Responses

  1. David

    How do I subscribe to your service?

    • Blair

      David, I don’t have a subscription service. I post changes to the various portfolio allocations each Friday (if there are any).

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