At the end of April monthly MACD for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) created a bearish crossover. However, momentum is still fairly strong. As a result, I take the monthly MACD signal as notice to start paying closer attention to the market because it is starting to stall (but not a signal that a long term top is in). If momentum crosses below 100 it will increase the odds that a long term trend change has occurred. Of course I’ll want to see confirmation from all the other indicators I follow before making a call.
Here’s a close up view of the MACD crossover.