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Weak Breadth Increases Market Risk

Published on June 30, 2015 by in Market Comments

Over the past few days various measures of breadth have show quite a bit of weakness. As I noted in this post, large market declines come when breadth is already weak. With such weak readings the odds have increased that this decline will be 10% or more. Below are some breadth examples.

First is NYSE Advance/Declines. They led the current decline in the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Small caps are especially sensitive to this condition.

150630nyad

Next is the Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX). It currently has less than 60% of the stocks in SPX with bullish point and figure charts. This indicates a significant number of stocks in down trends.

150630bpspx

Last is the percent of stocks in SPX that are below their 200 day moving average. Nearly 50% of SPX stocks are below their 200 dma.

150630spx200

With all three measures of breadth showing significant weakness, a signal from my market risk indicator should be taken seriously.

 
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