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Hanging On

Over the past week, my market health indicators mostly fell, but none of them fell enough to change any portfolio allocations. The market trend category is the closest to going negative, but still hanging on. One thing of note this week is that fear is starting to enter the market. Two of the four components of my market risk indicator are warning at the moment. It would take a very steep decline in the last hour of trading to cause a market risk warning, however. If that happens, I’ll do another post, but as of now, no portfolio changes.

151211MarketHealth

 
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2 Responses

  1. Mark

    Hello Blair,

    The S&P is now making/breaking a triple bottom. Do you consider that at all?

    Oct 21, Nov 16, today.

    • Blair

      Yeah, my measures of trend are seeing a break of the trend at the moment. However, if I look at the pattern from the September low to today it looks like healthy consolidation of a massive run. So for the moment I suspect it is short term weakness as a part of a long term uptrend.

      If we get a break below 2000 (basically the last low) on SPX then I suspect we’re going lower in the intermediate term. That will increase the odds that this bull is finally over.

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