Over the past week, quite a lot of damage was done to my core market health indicators. Two of the categories are at risk of going negative if the market can’t rally next week. Most significant is my core measures of risk. They fell substantially over the past two weeks. This means that risk from core market internals is rising. Meanwhile, the most sensitive components of my market risk indicator aren’t showing the same type of warning. They’re still in the very healthy range. This indicates that risk in the market at this moment is from core market internals and not investor perception of risk or an event. If my core market risk indicators warn without significant movement toward a warning from my market risk indicator, it will be an unusual occurrence for a longer term top. Other times where this condition has happened resulted in short to intermediate term dips during a longer term bull market. Here are some dates: Mid 2004, spring 2005, late 2005, and early 2006 thru August
Over the past week, most of my core market health indicators fell. Most notably, my measures of market strength went negative. This changes the core portfolio allocations (below). Another thing that was interesting this week is that the fear everyone is talking about isn’t showing up in my Market Risk Indicator yet. The most sensitive components of that indicator think the saber rattling this week is a non-event event. That’s not to say a negative risk reaction won’t materialize, but until it does we have to operate under the assumption that this event will quickly fade as a market moving issue. The new portfolio allocations are as follows: Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 90% long high beta stocks and 10% short the S&P 500 Index (or use the ETF with symbol SH) Long / Cash portfolio: 80% long and 20% cash Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (Since 11/11/2016) One thing you can keep an eye on is the bullish percent index (BPSPX). It is still a good distance above my
Over the past week, my core market health indicators bounced around, but all still held positive readings. I expect we’ll continue to see some chop, but it should resolve higher.
Over the past week, my core measures of the economy joined the other categories and finally got into positive territory. This changes the core portfolio allocations to the the following. Long / Cash portfolio: 100% long Long / Short portfolio: 100% long high beta stocks Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 11/11/2016)
Over the past week, my core market health indicators bounced around a bit, but are holding steady in bullish territory. One thing of note, is that my measures of the economy are on the verge of going positive. I suspect that there is a good chance they go positive in the next few weeks. Conclusion The market is rallying with healthy internals. Odds are we continue to move higher.
Over the past week, all of my core market health indicators rose. As I suspected, we’re getting new highs and not a long term top… just yet.
Over the past week, most of my core market health indicators rose dramatically. It appears that market internals are preparing for a move higher. As I mentioned last week, it looks like the current dip is merely rotation before a move to all time highs rather than the making of a long term top. The measures of market quality and strength moved into positive territory this week. That changes the core portfolio allocations as follows: Long / Short hedged portfolio: 90% long high beta stocks and 10% short the S&P 500 Index (or use the ETF with symbol SH) Long / Cash portfolio: 80% long and 20% short Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long since 11/11/2016
Over the past week, my core market health indicators mostly moved higher. With the exception of market risk, they’re compressing around the zero line. This usually happens near inflection points where the market breaks hard one way or the other. Market risk isn’t showing up so that gives the edge to the bulls. The current dip looks much more like a rotation before a rally than a long term top being made. My measures of market trend moved into positive territory this week. As a result, the portfolio allocations have changed as noted below. As always, use your own risk tolerance to structure your portfolio. Long / Cash portfolio: 40% long and 60% cash Long / Short portfolio: 70% long high beta stocks and 30% short the S&P 500 Index (or use the ETF with symbol SH) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 11/11/2016)
Over the past week, most of my core market health indicators rose. Most significantly, are the market quality and trend categories. Both of them could go positive next week if the market doesn’t suffer much damage. One fly in the ointment is that money is still being moved disproportionately into mega cap stocks. This will provide a headwind for the broad market until the ratio between the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and SPX Equal Weighted (SPXEW) can move higher (preferably above its 20 week moving average). Conclusion Market health is improving, but investors are still favoring the “safe” stocks. This indicates continued marginal gains followed by choppiness.
We’ve got an interesting situation in the markets where perceptions of risk are extremely low, but my core indicators show an unhealthy market profile. This suggests that the unhealthy internals are most likely a result of rotation, and not the start of a longer term top. Of course, that’s not to say that mere rotation can’t turn into mass selling. But, for now, I’m not too concerned. One of the reasons I’m not to concerned is that even with the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) weakness over the past week, the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) above their 200 day moving average is rising. This tells me that investors are rotating into beaten down stocks. This isn’t the way tops are usually made. Tops are made when leaders and beaten down stocks are being sold at the same time. As I mentioned above, my core indicators are showing weakness in underlying technical support. Most notably, is the market quality category which fell below zero this week. That changes our