Over the past week all of my core market health indicators have strengthened except for market risk. My measures of the economy strengthened enough to move slightly above zero. This means we’ll be adding exposure to the core portfolios. The new allocations will be as follows:
Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (since 10/24/14)
Long / Cash portfolios: 100% long
Long / Short portfolio: 100 long
Here’s a chart with changes to the core portfolios over the past 18 months. Green is adding long exposure, yellow raising cash or adding hedges, red represents an aggressive hedge using an instrument that benefits from rising volatility.
One thing of note is that my core indicators (which are intermediate term in nature) are currently at odds with some of the short term indicators I watch. For example, Trade Followers momentum from Twitter is currently issuing a consolidation warning. This indicates that even though we’re adding exposure the market may chop around or dip before it can move higher.
Another thing of concern is that new lows are starting to rise. This indicates that value players stepped aside this week. If this trend continues then we’re probably looking at a larger dip than we’ve seen in a while.
Overall, I’m seeing strength in the intermediate term indicators and some weakness in the short term. This is to be expected during a small price decline near the top of the current range. I suspect we’ll have to wait for the range to break on way or another before the short and intermediate term indicators align themselves. It’s still all about the range…which you can see is in conflict as well.