Below are charts with the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 4/1/14.
Over the last week the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio fell sharply. It is now down over 9% from the first Friday of the month. Every stock in the portfolio is down over the period and four of them are down more than 10%. The decline puts the portfolio below the performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from the start of 2013. As I mentioned in the StockTwits portfolio post, the poor performance of the portfolio is one warning sign of many for the market. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 3/7/2014 $BIDU 73 182.04 13288.92 153.75 11223.75 -15.54% $BBRY 1345 9.91 13328.95 8.98 12078.10 -9.38% $BAC 734 17.33 12720.22 16.92 12419.28 -2.37% $GTAT 761 17.50 13317.50 17.49 13309.89 -0.06% $PCLN 10 1358.04 13580.40 1202.00 12020.00 -11.49% $KNDI 687 19.40 13327.80 16.56 11376.72 -14.64% $EBAY 225 59.06 13288.50 55.21 12422.25 -6.52% $CMG 22 593.41 13055.02 569.45 12527.90 -4.04% $IRBT
The buy signal generated from the StockTwits stream for Bank of America (BAC) on 3/4/14 has been closed. The signal came from a very steep trend in quantified messages so this dip back below might be a whip saw. However, I officially close them on the site even if I personally give the trade a bit more time to shake out. This is an example that illustrates that trade signals aren’t the same as trading.
Below are charts with the total intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 3/25/14.
The Twitter Top 10 portfolio recovered a bit over the past week, but is still lagging the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from the first Friday of the year. As I mentioned last week, the picks just haven’t been able to keep momentum. If you have time take a look at the charts for this month’s picks and you’ll see some ugly patterns that don’t bode well for the market as a whole. Below is a performance chart and details for this month’s picks. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 3/7/2014 $BIDU 73 182.04 13288.92 159.58 11649.34 -12.34% $BBRY 1345 9.91 13328.95 9.48 12750.60 -4.34% $BAC 734 17.33 12720.22 17.77 13043.18 2.54% $GTAT 761 17.50 13317.50 18.99 14451.39 8.51% $PCLN 10 1358.04 13580.40 1290.05 12900.50 -5.01% $KNDI 687 19.40 13327.80 19.02 13066.74 -1.96% $EBAY 225 59.06 13288.50 57.11 12849.75 -3.30% $CMG 22 593.41 13055.02 611.33 13449.26 3.02% $IRBT 307 43.35 13308.45 42.33 12995.31 -2.35% $ZNGA 2388 5.58 13325.04 5.01 11963.88 -10.22%
Below are charts with the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 3/18/14.
At the close on 3/14/14 the buy signal for Google (GOOG) that was issued on 8/20/13 was finally closed. This was a trade that just kept on giving and ended with a 35% gain. Sentiment has now broken below the trend that created the buy signal which officially closes the trade. We currently have only two buy signals left open which is another sign that the market may be forming a top. When long positions are being closed, consolidation warnings are starting to show up, and very few new long signals are being generated it suggests that traders on Twitter and StockTwits are getting cautious. The two open signals are Yelp (YELP) and Bank of America (BAC). Both of them are showing weakness and will need to rally quickly to save them from closing.
For the first time since tracking the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio it has dipped below the performance of the S&P 500 index (SPX). It had a very bad week and is down 5.86% over the period which was enough that SPX now out performs from the first Friday in 2013. The picks in the portfolio have had a hard time sustaining momentum since the beginning of the year. This could be giving us a signal about the market as a whole. When the most loved stocks can’t continue their march higher it suggests that traders and investors are raising cash or waiting for better prices before buying. I expect a momentum/relative strength/sentiment screen to outperform on up trends, but under perform at the beginning of down trends. As a result, the current weakness in the portfolio could be warning about a longer term top in the market. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Below is a perfomance chart and details of the current holdings. Start Date
Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 3/11/14.
Below are charts with the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 3/11/14.