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Tale of Two Markets

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Last week’s market action didn’t affect our core health indicators too much, but many of the ancillary indicators I watch suffered some damage. While the market looks healthy on the surface there are enough indicators warning to suggest the worst isn’t behind us yet. Currently we have a tale of two markets. Although our core health indicators are positive most of them have weak enough readings that they could turn negative over the next few weeks. However, this would be very unusual given the fact that many of them turned positive just last week. Generally, when all of them move above zero they stay there for at least two months. Weakness in these indicators will provide significant warning. Another indicator that is telling two stories is our core measure of risk. It is still showing low perceptions of risk, but just came out of an overbought condition. This often marks the beginning of corrections larger than 10%. Momentum stocks are also acting indecisive. Many of them have had good runs over

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Twitter Top 10 Still Falling

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The Twitter Top 10 Portfolio continues to fall. It is down 3.82% this month lagging the S&P 500 Index (SPX) badly. The under performance is a result of three momentum stocks in the portfolio that are getting hit hard. They are Himax Tech (HIMX) down 24%, Kandi Tech (KNDI) down over 14.5%, and Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) down over 10%. Baidu (BIDU) is the only stocks out performing this month, up nearly 9%. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings.   Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $MSFT 292 39.87 11642.04 39.95 11665.40 0.20% $HIMX 1021 11.43 11670.03 8.69 8872.49 -23.97% $GTAT 761 16.90 12860.90 16.00 12176.00 -5.33% $QCOM 148 78.53 11622.44 77.45 11462.60 -1.38% $BIDU 73 149.35 10902.55 162.69 11876.37 8.93% $KNDI 687 14.08 9672.96 12.02 8257.74 -14.63% $F 724 16.13 11678.12 15.78 11424.72 -2.17% $AA 925 12.63 11682.75 13.27 12274.75 5.07% $K 183 63.77 11669.91 66.61 12189.63 4.45% $GMCR 113 102.99 11637.87 92.40

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Twitter Top 10 Continues to Lag

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The Twitter Top 10 Portfolio continues to lag the market this month. It is still down 2.4% while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is essentially flat.  The stocks that are dragging down the portfolio are Himax Tech (HIMX) down over 20% and Kandi Tech (KNDI) down almost 17%.  These are two leftover momentum stocks that didn’t fall out of the portfolio at the first of the month. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings.   Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $MSFT 292 39.87 11642.04 40.04 11691.68 0.43% $HIMX 1021 11.43 11670.03 9.12 9311.52 -20.21% $GTAT 761 16.90 12860.90 16.29 12396.69 -3.61% $QCOM 148 78.53 11622.44 81.22 12020.56 3.43% $BIDU 73 149.35 10902.55 156.77 11444.21 4.97% $KNDI 687 14.08 9672.96 11.69 8031.03 -16.97% $F 724 16.13 11678.12 16.07 11634.68 -0.37% $AA 925 12.63 11682.75 13.49 12478.25 6.81% $K 183 63.77 11669.91 66.29 12131.07 3.95% $GMCR 113 102.99 11637.87 98.55 11136.15 -4.31% Cash 116.05 116.05 Totals 115155.62

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Twitter Top 10 Follows Market Down

The Twitter Top 10 portfolio is down 2.91% since the new picks last week. This is slightly worse performance than the S&P 500 Index (SPX) which is down about 2.4%.  The under performance is mostly a result of Kandi Technologies (KNDI) which is down nearly 12%. Six of the stocks in the portfolio are performing better than SPX as the portfolio rotated to larger cap stocks when momentum stocks failed. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $MSFT 292 39.87 11642.04 39.35 11490.20 -1.30% $HIMX 1021 11.43 11670.03 10.61 10832.81 -7.17% $GTAT 761 16.90 12860.90 16.26 12373.86 -3.79% $QCOM 148 78.53 11622.44 78.11 11560.28 -0.53% $BIDU 73 149.35 10902.55 149.02 10878.46 -0.22% $KNDI 687 14.08 9672.96 12.40 8518.80 -11.93% $F 724 16.13 11678.12 15.74 11395.76 -2.42% $AA 925 12.63 11682.75 12.40 11470.00 -1.82% $K 183 63.77 11669.91 65.33 11955.39 2.45% $GMCR 113 102.99 11637.87 99.28 11218.64 -3.60% Cash 116.05

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April Picks for Twitter Top 10 Portfolio

The month of March was horrific for the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio. It is currently down 12.84% on the month…and we still have to suffer through the rest of the day.  I’m sure you know the cause, but I’ll state it anyway.  A breakdown in momentum names caught the March picks in its wave down. UPDATE: After the close the portfolio was down 13.2% for the month. The details have been updated below. The new picks for April are a mix of industries which is consistent with investors rotating rather than wholesale selling.  As a side note, some of the new picks for this month are being sold hard today which does not bode well for the market as a whole because it may be the start of more widespread selling.  When stocks can’t maintain momentum for longer than a month it creates instability in the market which can lead to a cascade.  It is just one more warning sign. Here are the April picks. MSFT, HIMX, GTAT, QCOM, BIDU,

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Most Bullish Stocks on Twitter

Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 4/1/14.

 
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Sharp Drop in Twitter Top 10 Portfolio

Over the last week the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio fell sharply. It is now down over 9% from the first Friday of the month.  Every stock in the portfolio is down over the period and four of them are down more than 10%. The decline puts the portfolio below the performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from the start of 2013.  As I mentioned in the StockTwits portfolio post, the poor performance of the portfolio is one warning sign of many for the market. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 3/7/2014 $BIDU 73 182.04 13288.92 153.75 11223.75 -15.54% $BBRY 1345 9.91 13328.95 8.98 12078.10 -9.38% $BAC 734 17.33 12720.22 16.92 12419.28 -2.37% $GTAT 761 17.50 13317.50 17.49 13309.89 -0.06% $PCLN 10 1358.04 13580.40 1202.00 12020.00 -11.49% $KNDI 687 19.40 13327.80 16.56 11376.72 -14.64% $EBAY 225 59.06 13288.50 55.21 12422.25 -6.52% $CMG 22 593.41 13055.02 569.45 12527.90 -4.04% $IRBT

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Continued Carnage in StockTwits Top 10 Portfolio

Over the past week the StockTwits Top 10 portfolio continued to fall. It is now down 6.74% from the first Friday of the month.  Seven of the stocks in the portfolio are down more than 5% and three are down more than 10%.  The largest gainer is only up 3%. If you don’t know by now, the portfolio performance should alert you that the most loved (and momentum) stocks are being sold in favor of value stocks. Although a rotation to value can suggest that investors are moving to safety, it isn’t predictive of a future market decline.  There are often times in the market when momentum and growth stocks get over valued which results in money managers taking profit and moving the money to under valued stocks.  They do this not from a belief that the market is going to fall, rather a belief that value will out perform growth and momentum going forward.  As a result, profit taking in the most loved stocks is just one piece of

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Twitter Top 10 Portfolio Recovers a Bit

The Twitter Top 10 portfolio recovered a bit over the past week, but is still lagging the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from the first Friday of the year.  As I mentioned last week, the picks just haven’t been able to keep momentum.  If you have time take a look at the charts for this month’s picks and you’ll see some ugly patterns that don’t bode well for the market as a whole. Below is a performance chart and details for this month’s picks. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 3/7/2014 $BIDU 73 182.04 13288.92 159.58 11649.34 -12.34% $BBRY 1345 9.91 13328.95 9.48 12750.60 -4.34% $BAC 734 17.33 12720.22 17.77 13043.18 2.54% $GTAT 761 17.50 13317.50 18.99 14451.39 8.51% $PCLN 10 1358.04 13580.40 1290.05 12900.50 -5.01% $KNDI 687 19.40 13327.80 19.02 13066.74 -1.96% $EBAY 225 59.06 13288.50 57.11 12849.75 -3.30% $CMG 22 593.41 13055.02 611.33 13449.26 3.02% $IRBT 307 43.35 13308.45 42.33 12995.31 -2.35% $ZNGA 2388 5.58 13325.04 5.01 11963.88 -10.22%

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StockTwits Top 10 Portfolio Stalls

The StockTwits Top 10 portfolio fell over the past week. Like the Twitter Top 10 portfolio the stocks picked this month are stalling, consolidating, or falling even as the market moves to new highs.  The lack of momentum suggest that rotation and churning is occurring in the market. Below is a performance chart and details of the current picks. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 3/7/2014 $ZNGA 1919 5.58 10708.02 5.02 9633.38 -10.04% $BIDU 58 182.04 10558.32 159.44 9247.52 -12.41% $AMD 2712 3.95 10712.40 4.09 11092.08 3.54% $SLV 533 20.08 10702.64 19.58 10436.14 -2.49% $EBAY 181 59.06 10689.86 56.97 10311.57 -3.54% $NOK 1347 7.95 10708.65 7.32 9860.04 -7.92% $REGN 32 328.11 10499.52 323.29 10345.28 -1.47% $AA 881 12.16 10712.96 12.05 10616.05 -0.90% $GE 410 26.13 10713.30 25.58 10487.80 -2.10% $ANR 2232 4.80 10713.60 4.46 9954.72 -7.08% Cash 388.91 388.91 Totals 107108.18 102373.49 -4.42%

 
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