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Twitter Top 10 Continues to Lag

140417Twitter10

The Twitter Top 10 Portfolio continues to lag the market this month. It is still down 2.4% while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is essentially flat.  The stocks that are dragging down the portfolio are Himax Tech (HIMX) down over 20% and Kandi Tech (KNDI) down almost 17%.  These are two leftover momentum stocks that didn’t fall out of the portfolio at the first of the month. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings.   Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $MSFT 292 39.87 11642.04 40.04 11691.68 0.43% $HIMX 1021 11.43 11670.03 9.12 9311.52 -20.21% $GTAT 761 16.90 12860.90 16.29 12396.69 -3.61% $QCOM 148 78.53 11622.44 81.22 12020.56 3.43% $BIDU 73 149.35 10902.55 156.77 11444.21 4.97% $KNDI 687 14.08 9672.96 11.69 8031.03 -16.97% $F 724 16.13 11678.12 16.07 11634.68 -0.37% $AA 925 12.63 11682.75 13.49 12478.25 6.81% $K 183 63.77 11669.91 66.29 12131.07 3.95% $GMCR 113 102.99 11637.87 98.55 11136.15 -4.31% Cash 116.05 116.05 Totals 115155.62

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Twitter Top 10 Follows Market Down

The Twitter Top 10 portfolio is down 2.91% since the new picks last week. This is slightly worse performance than the S&P 500 Index (SPX) which is down about 2.4%.  The under performance is mostly a result of Kandi Technologies (KNDI) which is down nearly 12%. Six of the stocks in the portfolio are performing better than SPX as the portfolio rotated to larger cap stocks when momentum stocks failed. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $MSFT 292 39.87 11642.04 39.35 11490.20 -1.30% $HIMX 1021 11.43 11670.03 10.61 10832.81 -7.17% $GTAT 761 16.90 12860.90 16.26 12373.86 -3.79% $QCOM 148 78.53 11622.44 78.11 11560.28 -0.53% $BIDU 73 149.35 10902.55 149.02 10878.46 -0.22% $KNDI 687 14.08 9672.96 12.40 8518.80 -11.93% $F 724 16.13 11678.12 15.74 11395.76 -2.42% $AA 925 12.63 11682.75 12.40 11470.00 -1.82% $K 183 63.77 11669.91 65.33 11955.39 2.45% $GMCR 113 102.99 11637.87 99.28 11218.64 -3.60% Cash 116.05

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April Picks for Twitter Top 10 Portfolio

The month of March was horrific for the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio. It is currently down 12.84% on the month…and we still have to suffer through the rest of the day.  I’m sure you know the cause, but I’ll state it anyway.  A breakdown in momentum names caught the March picks in its wave down. UPDATE: After the close the portfolio was down 13.2% for the month. The details have been updated below. The new picks for April are a mix of industries which is consistent with investors rotating rather than wholesale selling.  As a side note, some of the new picks for this month are being sold hard today which does not bode well for the market as a whole because it may be the start of more widespread selling.  When stocks can’t maintain momentum for longer than a month it creates instability in the market which can lead to a cascade.  It is just one more warning sign. Here are the April picks. MSFT, HIMX, GTAT, QCOM, BIDU,

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Most Bullish Stocks on Twitter

Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 4/1/14.

 
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Sharp Drop in Twitter Top 10 Portfolio

Over the last week the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio fell sharply. It is now down over 9% from the first Friday of the month.  Every stock in the portfolio is down over the period and four of them are down more than 10%. The decline puts the portfolio below the performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from the start of 2013.  As I mentioned in the StockTwits portfolio post, the poor performance of the portfolio is one warning sign of many for the market. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 3/7/2014 $BIDU 73 182.04 13288.92 153.75 11223.75 -15.54% $BBRY 1345 9.91 13328.95 8.98 12078.10 -9.38% $BAC 734 17.33 12720.22 16.92 12419.28 -2.37% $GTAT 761 17.50 13317.50 17.49 13309.89 -0.06% $PCLN 10 1358.04 13580.40 1202.00 12020.00 -11.49% $KNDI 687 19.40 13327.80 16.56 11376.72 -14.64% $EBAY 225 59.06 13288.50 55.21 12422.25 -6.52% $CMG 22 593.41 13055.02 569.45 12527.90 -4.04% $IRBT

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Continued Carnage in StockTwits Top 10 Portfolio

Over the past week the StockTwits Top 10 portfolio continued to fall. It is now down 6.74% from the first Friday of the month.  Seven of the stocks in the portfolio are down more than 5% and three are down more than 10%.  The largest gainer is only up 3%. If you don’t know by now, the portfolio performance should alert you that the most loved (and momentum) stocks are being sold in favor of value stocks. Although a rotation to value can suggest that investors are moving to safety, it isn’t predictive of a future market decline.  There are often times in the market when momentum and growth stocks get over valued which results in money managers taking profit and moving the money to under valued stocks.  They do this not from a belief that the market is going to fall, rather a belief that value will out perform growth and momentum going forward.  As a result, profit taking in the most loved stocks is just one piece of

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Twitter Top 10 Portfolio Recovers a Bit

The Twitter Top 10 portfolio recovered a bit over the past week, but is still lagging the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from the first Friday of the year.  As I mentioned last week, the picks just haven’t been able to keep momentum.  If you have time take a look at the charts for this month’s picks and you’ll see some ugly patterns that don’t bode well for the market as a whole. Below is a performance chart and details for this month’s picks. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 3/7/2014 $BIDU 73 182.04 13288.92 159.58 11649.34 -12.34% $BBRY 1345 9.91 13328.95 9.48 12750.60 -4.34% $BAC 734 17.33 12720.22 17.77 13043.18 2.54% $GTAT 761 17.50 13317.50 18.99 14451.39 8.51% $PCLN 10 1358.04 13580.40 1290.05 12900.50 -5.01% $KNDI 687 19.40 13327.80 19.02 13066.74 -1.96% $EBAY 225 59.06 13288.50 57.11 12849.75 -3.30% $CMG 22 593.41 13055.02 611.33 13449.26 3.02% $IRBT 307 43.35 13308.45 42.33 12995.31 -2.35% $ZNGA 2388 5.58 13325.04 5.01 11963.88 -10.22%

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StockTwits Top 10 Portfolio Stalls

The StockTwits Top 10 portfolio fell over the past week. Like the Twitter Top 10 portfolio the stocks picked this month are stalling, consolidating, or falling even as the market moves to new highs.  The lack of momentum suggest that rotation and churning is occurring in the market. Below is a performance chart and details of the current picks. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 3/7/2014 $ZNGA 1919 5.58 10708.02 5.02 9633.38 -10.04% $BIDU 58 182.04 10558.32 159.44 9247.52 -12.41% $AMD 2712 3.95 10712.40 4.09 11092.08 3.54% $SLV 533 20.08 10702.64 19.58 10436.14 -2.49% $EBAY 181 59.06 10689.86 56.97 10311.57 -3.54% $NOK 1347 7.95 10708.65 7.32 9860.04 -7.92% $REGN 32 328.11 10499.52 323.29 10345.28 -1.47% $AA 881 12.16 10712.96 12.05 10616.05 -0.90% $GE 410 26.13 10713.30 25.58 10487.80 -2.10% $ANR 2232 4.80 10713.60 4.46 9954.72 -7.08% Cash 388.91 388.91 Totals 107108.18 102373.49 -4.42%

 
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Twitter Top 10 Portfolio Dips Below S&P 500

For the first time since tracking the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio it has dipped below the performance of the S&P 500 index (SPX).  It had a very bad week and is down 5.86% over the period which was enough that SPX now out performs from the first Friday in 2013.  The picks in the portfolio have had a hard time sustaining momentum since the beginning of the year.  This could be giving us a signal about the market as a whole.  When the most loved stocks can’t continue their march higher it suggests that traders and investors are raising cash or waiting for better prices before buying.  I expect a momentum/relative strength/sentiment screen to outperform on up trends, but under perform at the beginning of down trends.  As a result, the current weakness in the portfolio could be warning about a longer term top in the market.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Below is a perfomance chart and details of the current holdings. Start Date

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StockTwits Top 10 Takes a Hit

Over the past week the StockTwits Top 10 Portfolio took a pretty big hit. It was down 3.53% compared to the S&P 500 Index which only fell 1.7%. This is fairly normal behavior for a portfolio based on a relative strength / momentum / sentiment indicator and makes picks based on data that lags up to a month.  Each month the picks are selected from the stocks that have the most support from the StockTwits stream over the previous month.  As a result, stocks making short term tops are often selected.  This is why I don’t recommend mechanical trading/investing.  Instead, this portfolio is designed to illustrate that stocks with a lot of support in the StockTwits community are a good starting point for possible trades and portfolio selection. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings.  The portfolio is up 3.3% from the first Friday of the month. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 3/7/2014 $ZNGA 1919

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