As the market rallied this past week, my core market health indicators bounced around a bit. Most notably, my measures of trend surged to nearly over bought conditions. Core measures of risk continue to lag the market and look like they’ll need another week or two of sideways or upward movement (probably some backing and filling near new highs) in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) to go positive. One sign that the market is recovering from a breadth perspective comes from the Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX). The damage done to point and figure charts is being repaired and has brought BPSPX back above 60%. That takes a lot of pressure off from a risk perspective. Conclusion Market internals are repairing themselves in anticipation of a rally to new highs, however, we may need a bit of backing a filling before moving higher.
As I noted yesterday, my Market Risk Indicator is issuing a warning. As a result, the portfolio allocations change as follows. Long / Short portfolio: 50% long high beta stocks and 50% hedged with mid term volatility (VXZ) Long / Cash portfolio: 100% cash Volatility Hedged portfolio: 50% long and 50% hedged with mid term volatility (VXZ) As I mentioned last week, the bullish percent index is below 60% which significantly increases the risk of another 10% decline from the current level. My core measures of market health had the economy improving and moving above zero this week, while the core measures of risk fell below zero. Conclusion We have a market risk warning in place. It’s time to aggressively hedge until the current storm passes.
Over the past week, my core market health indicators collapsed. They are all moving quickly toward zero. Most notably, is my core measures of risk. They are very close to going negative. In addition to my core measures, breadth measures are starting to warn as well. The bullish percent index (BPSPX), which tracks the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have bullish point and figure charts, has fallen below 60%. When this occurs the odds of a 10% decline (from current levels) increases substantially. Especially if my market risk indicator signals. Currently, two of four components of that indicator are warning. However, the other two are a long way away from a signal. I suspect it would take a quick fall through 2100 on SPX to create a warning. Another breadth indicator that is warning is the percent of stocks in SPX that are below their 200 day moving average. It is also below 60%. I’m sure you’ve all noticed that small cap stocks have broken
Over the past week, my core market health indicators mostly strengthened as the market bounced around. It continues to look like the market wants to go higher, it just needs a reason. The bullish percent index (BPSPX) is still holding above 60%. As long as it stays that way the odds favor a mild decline over a 10% or more from here. If BPSPX falls below 60%, I suspect it will be as the S&P 500 Index (SPX) falls below 2100, which is a major support level. Conclusion Waiting and watching as core indicators strengthen. It looks like the market wants to go higher. But, the range between 2100 and 2200 on SPX represents significant support and resistance so a break should point the next intermediate term direction.
It’s looking like make or break time for the market. So far, it looks like we’re seeing normal consolidation with healthy market internals. But, we’re getting close to a point where the risk of a 10% correction rises substantially. Long time readers know that when the bullish percent index (BPSPX) gets below 60% the odds of a large decline rises. We’re getting close to that warning level. Looking at a daily closing price chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) it appears that we’re painting a bull flag. Once the consolidation is over, this pattern should resolve upward. One positive thing that indicates we may have seen the worst comes from support and resistance levels tweeted by traders on Twitter (from Trade Followers). Yesterday, SPX caught at the first support level near 2120 then rallied sharply. This goes into the plus column, but SPX is still pretty far above its 200 day moving average. I wouldn’t be surprised if the current rally fizzles and takes the market down to the
It’s been a while since I highlighted some breadth indicators so here we go. First is the NYSE Advance / Decline line (NYAD). All I can say is Wow! NYAD is telling us that small cap stocks were the place to be coming out of the February low. Comparing the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) against the S&P 500 (SPX) shows us how big cap stocks have performed against mega cap stocks. The move out of the February low showed widespread buying of big cap stocks, while mega caps lagged. This was a rotation out of the safety trade. Then we got a bit of consolidation in SPX as investors took some profit in big caps and re-allocated it to mega caps. Now it looks like the market is getting ready to run again, fueled by big caps. The percent of SPX stocks above their 200 day moving average (SPX200) shows the same picture as SPXEW. Widespread buying of big caps, followed by some consolidation, then renewed widespread buying.
Over the past couple of months, I’ve highlighted some encouraging signs that had accompanied price strength in the market. Unfortunately, most of those signs of strength haven’t persisted as the market is moving close to all time highs. First lets look at the Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX). It finally got above the 2015 highs in March and April of this year, but the subsequent consolidation in the market did serious damage to this indicator. It is still below 60% which is a big drag on the market (and adds the risk of a big decline). Basically, a lot of point and figure charts turned bearish during the last consolidation and haven’t righted themselves. Next is small caps stocks compared to big caps. They have lagged during the last rally. I like to see them lead as a sign of investors taking risk in their portfolios. Money flowed into mega cap stocks faster than big cap stocks during the last rally too. Another poor sign for a sustained rally. It looks
The rally out of the February lows has repaired a lot of charts. If you look at the bullish percent index (BPSPX) the last rally brought the percent of bullish point and figure charts in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) to nearly 80%. That level is higher than BPSPX achieved during all of 2015. This is an encouraging sign for the market as a whole because it gives BPSPX plenty of room to consolidate before getting below the 60% level. Long time readers know that I use readings below the 60% level to indicate increased risk (big market declines occur when breadth is already weak). So as long as BPSPX stays above 60% this indicator will remain bullish. Another indication of chart repair comes from the percent of stocks in SPX that are above their 200 day moving average. This indicator is back to the 2015 level again. It has also improved substantially from the levels of the August 2015 to November 2015 rally (which had price peaking above the
Over the past week most of my core measures of market health improved. Most notably is that my measures of risk went positive. This changes the portfolio allocations as follows: Long / Cash portfolio: 20% long and 80% cash Long / Short Hedged portfolio: 60% long high beta stocks and 40% short the S&P 500 Index (or the ETF SH) Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long (from 10/9/15) Another thing of note this week is that the Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX) is back above 60%. This reduces the risk of a steep or waterfall type decline. Here’s a post that explains the risk associated with poor breadth in the market.
I’m seeing several indications of weakness in the long term trend, but at the same time I’m seeing a lot of indicators that continue to show strength. It appears as if the battle for the long term trend has started. The first sign of weakness comes from monthly MACD for the S&P 500 Index (SPX). It has been rolling over since late last year and finally had a bearish cross in April. Momentum for SPX has been falling, but it is still at healthy levels. So here we’ve got two measures of momentum where one is bearish and the other is bullish. The next conflict comes from a point and figure chart for SPX. It recently broke its uptrend line that was put in place in late 2012. This created a new down trend and is considered bearish. Price has since recovered and is now only a few points away from breaking the down trend. If SPX can get above 2020 a new uptrend line will start and turn SPX