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Index Updates

I wanted to do just a quick update today on the fight between the bulls and the bears on Twitter that we mentioned over the weekend.  Twitter Sentiment for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a daily basis took a dip below zero again today even as the market moved substantially higher.  It was still close to zero at -5, but not normal on a good rally day. This caused smoothed sentiment to break its confirming trend line.  We take this as our first warning that the current rally may stall.  It does not mean that a correction has begun, but it does tell us that traders and investors don’t like the break above 1500 and many of them are selling into it.  This should at least cause some headwinds. Our next warning of a more serious correction would occur if smoothed sentiment drops below zero as that would signal that the negative sentiment and selling has occurred over several days.  In the past this has often been enough to

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Financial Stock Preview

Twitter Sentiment for Goldman Sachs (GS)

The banks will kick of their earnings season this week so we thought we’d show Twitter sentiment for five of them to get a feel for what traders tweets think of them before they report.  We’ll start with the good then move on to the bad and ugly.   Goldman Sachs (GS) is looking great and tweets about the stock are overwhelmingly positive. Daily sentiment hasn’t seen a day below zero in a month.  Smoothed sentiment is continuing to confirm the price move.  Just what we want to see in a stock in an uptrend.   Citigroup (C) is looking about the same.  It has a few more negative days than GS, but smoothed sentiment is continuing to rise which is a good sign. Bank of America (BAC) is looking the worst from a price perspective and sentiment is following price.  Smoothed sentiment is still above zero and we don’t have a huge divergence yet so there’s a good chance that BAC will resume its uptrend after some consolidation. JPMorgan

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Financials Showing Sentiment Strength

Over the last two months as the S&P 500 index has been moving steadily higher, financial stocks have put on a stealth rally.  Little noticed has been the underlying strength of Twitter sentiment for C, GS, and BAC.  While sentiment for SPX pokes above zero only to fall again, sentiment for the banks can’t be kept down.  It’ll dip for a day or two below zero only to pop right back up.  In the last couple of weeks sentiment has risen sharply as investors think the bottom is in for financials. The chart of Goldman Sachs below is representative of the most of the other bank stocks.  It has rallied about 15% off the recent lows with Twitter sentiment skyrocketing.  It’s too early to tell if the .74 reading on sentiment delivered on 8/8/2012 represents an over bought condition since 8/9 brought a 1% increase in the stock, but sentiment still remained high.   I would have expected more negative tweets as GS approached its 200 day moving average and

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