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Market Tops Give You Plenty of Time

Recently I’ve seen a lot of people mention on Twitter and various blogs that the market doesn’t give you time to get out at tops.  I have to politely disagree.  If you’re an intermediate or long term investor the market will almost always give you warning that it is preparing to consolidate.  As an example, here is one of our early warning posts from last October. Often the first warning signs are well ahead of the actual top, so the key to successful investing is in waiting for the weight of evidence to turn before making major changes to your portfolio.  Here at Downside Hedge we move money slowly as market conditions change.  From mid February we’ve been seeing signs of deteriorating market conditions.  Our canaries in a coal mine post on 2/19 highlighted some of the deterioration that we’ve been seeing.  The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was trading near 1520 at the time.  SPX is now near 1565 and most of those conditions are still in place. For a

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