Once again the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio picked a few stocks that were in long term downtrends and got bit by them. Molycorp (MCP) and Uni-Pixel (UNXL) both have suffered large losses this month down 26.78% and 11.6% respectively. This is one of the things I’ve warned about in the past, but as most of you know the portfolio is here to illustrate that bullish stocks on Twitter serve as a good starting universe for stock selection so we include every pick no matter our personal preferences. As always, do your own due diligence when picking stocks for your portfolios. Even with the two huge losers the portfolio is only down a little over 1% this month and is still up 30.76% on the year. Below is a performance chart and details of the current month’s holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 10/4/2013 $FB 252 51.04 12862.08 54.22 13663.44 6.23% $LNKD 50 244.99 12249.50 250.21 12510.50 2.13% $BIDU 81
The counter trend bounce signal for First Solar (FSLR) has ended. This trade came from below a trend line but from above the 200 dma. It has now carried above the previous up trend line, the new down trend line, and the 50 dma. It has filled the gap from early October so there is a greater chance it may turn back down from here. However, it has a gain of over 20% so it is a good example of a trade where partial profits can be taken and a mental stop put in place for the rest of the position if you believe there is still upside potential. For example, a $10,000 initial investment is now worth $12,000. A trader who takes off 1/3 off the trade would take $4,000 off ($2,000 in profit) leaving $8,000 in the trade. The rest of the position can now fall 25% and still leave the overall trade as break even. This stock serves as a good example of the difference between trade
The Twitter Top 10 Portfolio is under performing so far this month due to the recent crushing of momentum stocks. The portfolio has given up half the gains it made last month when momentum stocks surged higher. It remains to be seen if this is the top for these securities, but some real damage has been done to both their charts and the sentiment for them. Many of the most bullish stocks on Twitter moved to the most bearish stocks list this week. Keep an eye on these stocks as they’ll give some clues about the general market. So far this month the portfolio is down 3.47%. It is still up 27.5% on the year. Below is a performance chart from the first of the year and details of the holding for this month. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 10/4/2013 $FB 252 51.04 12862.08 49.72 12529.44 -2.59% $LNKD 50 244.99 12249.50 227.8 11390.00 -7.02% $BIDU 81 159.00 12879.00 154.54
Just as we’re starting to see some of the momentum stocks show up on the bearish list, they’re dropping off both the weekly and monthly most bullish list. Stocks like Facebook (FB), LinkedIn (LNKD), Priceline (PCLN), and Yelp (YELP) have dropped out of the top 25 most bullish stocks on Twitter in both time frames. Yahoo (YHOO) is still on the monthly list, but has dropped off the weekly list. At the least we’re seeing market participants taking profits due to the gridlock in Washington. At the worst, the party is over for the high fliers. Somewhere in the middle is an outcome where profits are being taken from the high fliers and will rotate into stocks that have been consolidating. A rotation into high quality stocks that are selling at a discount could still fuel a year end rally if the debt disagreement in Washington is resolved. As I mentioned in the bearish list post, keep an eye on the consolidating stocks to see if they’re holding up better
Below are charts with the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 10/8/13.
The Twitter Top 10 Portfolio is now up 31.95% from the first Friday of the year. It rose just over 6% in the past month. The portfolio continues to significantly outperform the S&P 500 Index (SPX). SPX is up 2% since the last set of stocks were picked and up 15.14% from the first Friday of the year. Twitter Top 10 is currently doubling the performance of the general market for the year. Note: prices are from roughly 11:00 AM Pacific. I’ll update this post with final closing prices over the weekend. UPDATE 10/5/13: prices rose a bit into the close on Friday which put the portfolio up 6.21% for the month and 32.13% on the year. I’ve updated the details below. The out performance this month comes from three stocks, Yahoo (YHOO) which is up 23.93%, Yelp (YELP) up 16.01%, and Salesforce.com (CRM) up 9.41%. The largest decline over the past month came from LinkedIn (LNKD) which is down 3.64%. On the first Friday of every month we issue
Below are charts of the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 10/1/13.
Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 9/24/13. The broad theme of internet stocks lead the weekly list. Yahoo (YHOO) and Baidu (BIDU) search and content plays. Priceline (PCLN), TripAdvisor (TRIP) , Yelp (YELP), and Groupon (GRPN) form another sub-theme of recreation and entertainment. Then of course Facebook (FB) and Zynga (ZNGA) as social and gaming.
Twitter sentiment for First Solar (FSLR) is signaling that the stock could get a counter trend bounce in the near future. Smoothed sentiment diverged positively from price for three weeks then gained enough momentum to break above its down trend line. This signal is fairly weak because of the wide and loose pattern in smoothed sentiment which is causing the break of the downtrend line at already elevated levels. I much prefer breaks from tight patterns that occur near the zero (neutral) line. The consolidation warning in late May (red vertical line) is an example. Some of you may see this as a buy signal rather than a counter trend bounce signal by interpreting price as still being in an uptrend and consolidating near a few levels of support. I read price as being in a down trend for a few reasons. First, the gap down on 8/7/13 broke the chart and suggests wide and choppy price movements in the near future (at the best). Price is now below both
Below are charts of the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 8/13/13.