Below are charts of the most active stocks on Twitter over the last week and month.
Above are the stocks with the most Bullish Twitter Intensity over the past week. Below are the monthly numbers.
The list of stocks above had the most Bullish Intensity on Twitter during the last week. Below are the Monthly scores.
In the first week of February did an update on precious metals and stated that we were “getting concerned that gold stocks are going to renew their down trend”. Then two weeks ago we reiterated our pessimism due to the lack of tweets talking about being buyers of gold stocks. As we look at the charts again today we’re even less hopeful than before. Gold (GLD) had a small bounce above the $150 level and now appears to be ready to break it. Since the first of the year our Twitter sentiment indicator for GLD has mirrored the movement in price. This tells us that traders and investors alike are confused and are simply chasing price. When traders are making “rational” judgements about the future prospect of a security sentiment plots its own path. Short term traders often take profits on bounces and buy on dips, which shows up in our sentiment indicator as divergences from price near turning points. When market participants are confident in the direction of a
It’s make or break time for gold (GLD) and gold stocks (GDX). We mentioned last week that we weren’t very optimistic for precious metals based on the extended down trend, the break of medium term up trend lines, and the consolidation of GDX below a longer term down trend line. GLD has held up better, but it now appears that it is resuming its downtrend. We mentioned that if $160 was broken then $150 would most likely be back in play. Well, $160 broke yesterday and today we got a close below it again. Meanwhile GDX in in the $41 area visiting the lows from last July. This just isn’t a good situation for precious metals shares. If GLD revisits $150 then GDX will almost certainly break below $39 in a very sharp and very ugly way. There are a few positives. GLD is still above the up trend line from last May’s lows. Smoothed Twitter sentiment for GLD has a small positive divergence with price (even though the
A few weeks ago we did an update on Gold (GLD) and Gold Stocks (GDX) where where stated that it was critical for them to hold their trend lines from the May 2012 lows. Well GLD has held the trend line, but GDX has not. We’re getting concerned that gold stocks are going to renew their down trend. We’ll give the negatives first, then move on to the positives (or what might better be called a sliver of hope). We already mentioned GDX breaking its most recent up trend line. Now there’s more bad news in that GDX has also broken back below the downward sloping trend line that goes back to the August 2011 highs. It is now consolidating below that line. When GDX broke and consolidated above it we thought the worst was over for precious metals. Now that it’s consolidating below the odds favor a resumption of the down trend. The break of both trend lines brought with it very negative Twitter sentiment that shows the backs
Gold (GLD) is currently being compressed in a triangle between two intermediate term trend lines. One is upward sloping from May and the other has a downward slope that began in October. The apex of the triangle will be reached within a few months so it won’t be long until we finally get a longer term direction for precious metals. During late August and early September of 2012 both GLD and precious metals shares (GDX) broke above a downward sloping trend line that began in late 2011. The fact that GLD and GDX have both held above those trend lines to the point where they have been eclipsed by new intermediate term uptrend lines (which started in May) bode well for a break to the upside. Although GLD has only corrected by 13% while GDX has corrected by 20% from the October highs, both of them have retraced approximately 60% of the rally out of the May lows. This is about the maximum retracement that most securities make if
Over the past few months we’ve noticed a pattern that has a fairly good track record for making trades based on our Twitter Sentiment indicator. That pattern is a divergence from price that is followed by a break in a trend line that has been confirming the move in price. We’ll use GLD as an example to illustrate the pattern, then we’ll do an update on the prospects for gold and gold stocks. On the chart below you’ll notice that over the two month period of June and July 2012 that GLD was in a minor down trend. During that time period Twitter sentiment confirmed the down trend by painting lower highs (it was in fact confirming the downtrend that began in February). However, in late June, smoothed sentiment for GLD recorded a very low reading followed by a higher low as price was compressing in a triangle. That provided a set up where all we needed was a break above the confirming downtrend line on smoothed sentiment as a
Last week we highlighted a positive divergence between gold (GLD) and Twitter sentiment for GLD. We noted in that update that the breakout in price along with the positive divergence might be signalling the end of the recent consolidation in GLD. That view is now at risk. We’re at a point where GLD must move higher with positive sentiment or we’ll see more consolidation of the rally out of the May/July lows. On the chart below, Friday’s daily sentiment indicator painted an initiation thrust down for GLD. This is not a good sign as strong negative readings on a downward price reversal often signal weakness in the near term. In addition, we’re seeing lower highs in daily sentiment as well. Our smoothed sentiment indicator for GLD is breaking the upward sloping trend line that started in October. It is still above zero, which gives GLD little breathing room, but a break of the trend line is our first warning of lower prices. Smoothed sentiment painted a very similar chart pattern
The price action for gold stocks (GDX) last week has been very disappointing. Especially since gold (GLD) has held up and traded as we expected it should. The chart for GLD looks like it is simply consolidating the strong move up that started in early August. It has held the horizontal line near 164 that has acted as both support and resistance over the past fifteen months. It rallied over the past week to break out of a steep short term down trend line which bodes well for precious metals. The chart for GDX is more troubling, but still has plenty of room for a bullish resolution (although with a serious amount of pain for the bulls). Our largest concern is that it couldn’t hold the 50 level. Once that level broke, price accelerated to the down side on heavy volume. We suspect that traders who bought the breakout above the down sloping trend line and the June peaks dumped the stock rather than take a large loss. If this