A couple of weeks ago I posted charts of precious metals with their Twitter sentiment indicators. In that post I concluded that “precious metals need a bounce right here or we’re probably seeing the resumption of the longer term down trend.” Gold and gold stocks didn’t get the bounce and subsequently broke back below their 50 day moving averages. This increases the odds that a continuation of the down trend is underway. There is a silver lining though. Sentiment hasn’t broken down too badly with price. Although the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) smoothed sentiment broke its uptrend line, it has turned back up at a point that is still confirming the move out of the June lows. This puts GLD back in a position that it once again needs to bounce right here. Market Vectors Gold Miner Shares ETF (GDX) has a much healthier chart and sentiment pattern. GDX is still holding its uptrend line for price that started with the June lows. Smoothed sentiment barely dipped below its
Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 9/17/13.
Below are charts with the intensity scores of the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 9/17/13.
During the rally out of the late June low the gold ETF I track (GLD) has had confirmation from sentiment generated from the Twitter stream. Smoothed sentiment has had a good uptrend that has held on dips. It’s currently coming back to the trend line and attempting to turn up even as price has fallen over the past few days. This is a good sign, but GLD needs to bounce right here or there will be a high probability for a resumption of the down trend. Another factor that may bring heavy selling if a bounce doesn’t materialize is that GLD is sitting right on its 50 day exponential moving average. A break below that level will almost certainly trigger some stops. The gold shares ETF that I track (GDX) has a stronger sentiment pattern than GLD. Smoothed sentiment had a large positive divergence from the hard break down in price in April to the break down in June. Since that time sentiment has held its upward sloping (and confirming)
Below are charts of the intensity scores of the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 9/10/13. Here is a chart showing the status of the 50 most active stocks on Twitter.
The most active stocks on Twitter are showing the largest number of charts with bearish chart and sentiment patterns since late June and early July. 32% with bearish charts is a significant number considering the fact that the stocks tweeted the most naturally carry a bullish bias. There are also 18% with negative divergences that could turn bearish over the next several weeks unless price and sentiment moves higher. Below is a chart with the status of the 50 most active stocks on Twitter. Below that are charts with the intensity scores of of the most active stocks for the week and month ending 9/3/13.
Below are charts with the intensity scores of the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 8/27/13. Below that is the status of the 50 most active stocks on Twitter.
A quick update on precious metals today. We didn’t get a counter trend bounce signal from Twitter sentiment for any of the precious metals before the current rally. This was because we didn’t see good positive divergences from price before the move started. Now that the metals are rallying we’re seeing confirmation of the move from Twitter sentiment that is painting higher lows and higher highs. Sentiment isn’t extremely over extended yet, but is getting near levels that might suggest a pull back is necessary before the metals can move higher. Below are charts of GLD, GDX, and Randgold Resources (GOLD). Notice that sentiment for Randgold is starting to paint a negative divergence from price as it nears the underside of the 200 day moving average. This is another indication that a pull back in precious metals may occur. A break of the uptrend in smoothed sentiment for Randgold would create an official sell signal for the stock (or consolidation warning if you believe it is in an uptrend). I’ll
I’m starting to see fewer stocks in confirmed up trends among the 50 most active stocks on Twitter. Several stocks over the last week have continued to show sentiment with a negative divergence from price. In addition, consolidation warnings are starting to pick up. Currently on 48% of stocks are in an uptrend confirmed by sentiment. This isn’t too concerning yet, but something we’re watching. Below are charts of the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 8/13/13. Below that is a chart of the status of the 50 most active stocks on Twitter.