Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) issued a consolidation warning on 7/19/13 when smoothed sentiment from the Twitter stream fell below its confirming uptrend line after a negative divergence from price. Today at the close sentiment for HPQ has moved back above the down trend line that has been in place since June. This officially closes the warning. As I’ve often mentioned there is a difference between a signal and an actual trade. This signal comes on a day when the stock fell over 2% after trying to hold its 200 day moving average and failing. It has now had a clear failure at a critical point. This gives evidence that the downtrend might resume at a faster pace over the next week or so. Staying short and putting a stop above the 200 dma would risk 3% against a possible gain of 10% or more if this consolidation is the half way point from the gap that started at the 50 dma. As always, make your own decisions, but remember there is a
Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 9/1/13.
Retail stocks such as Wal-Mart (WMT), Costco (COST), and J.C. Penney (JCP) are near the top of the most bearish stocks on Twitter this week. On the monthly list more retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Aeropostale (ARO), Nordstrom (JWN), Macy’s (M), and Staples (SPLS) are added to the mix which shows a building negative bias for all types of retail. Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores of the most bearish stocks on Twitter over the week and month ended 9/3/13.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) made its debut on the most bearish list this week. It has been lagging the market since this rally began so it’s something to watch if it continues to under perform during the current dip. Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores of the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 8/27/13.
Below are charts with the intensity scores of the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 8/27/13. Below that is the status of the 50 most active stocks on Twitter.
Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter. Week and month ending 7/23/13.
Below are charts with intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 6/18/13. Notice how many technology stocks are in the weekly list.
Below are charts of the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 6/4/13.
We haven’t commented much on the general market and market internals lately due to the completely boring nature of this latest rally. When a rally is being fueled by everyone believing it will go up due to outside forces (central banks printing money and buying debt) nothing else matters. As a result, we haven’t been able to pinpoint anything interesting that would give you (or us) any insight into what the market is doing. Well we’re finally seeing some interesting action under the covers. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has given back just 3% from intra-day peak to trough and barely over 1% on closing prices. Not very exciting, but everyone is suddenly asking if this is finally the top we’ve all been waiting for. For some insight we like to look at individual charts and see if everything is being affected or if the selling is localized. Broad based selling is bad. Localized selling is good…if it results in rotation…which is what we believe is causing the current sloppiness
Below are charts of the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter over the past week and month. Here is the status of the fifty most active stocks on Twitter. We’re starting to see more consolidation warnings and more unclear charts.