Precious metals stocks came back to the most bearish stocks on Twitter list this week. Energy stocks like Exxon Mobile (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are also a leading theme. With Dow Chemical (DOW) and Caterpillar (CAT) added to energy and precious metals it appears that my concern from last week continue and basic resources make up the the largest group of the bearish stocks. This could be an early warning about a resumption of the downtrend in the economy or deflation. Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 8/6/13.
The list of the 50 most active stocks on Twitter are starting to show some weakness. Although the number of stocks in a confirmed downtrend is falling, so are the number of stocks in a confirmed uptrend. Instead I’m starting to see move negative divergences and stocks that have unclear charts. Below are charts with the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 8/6/13. Below that is a chart with the status of the most active stocks.
Below are charts with the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter. Week and month ending 7/23/13.
Usually the most bearish stocks on Twitter have well defined down trends like Apollo Group (APOL), JC Penny (JCP), and Gold (GLD). But once in a while a stock in an uptrend shows up. Keep an eye on Goldman Sachs (GS) over the next few weeks because the chatter on Twitter is fairly negative even though the chart still isn’t badly damaged. The worst that can be said it that GS is painting a bearish flag at the moment. Below are charts of the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 7/2/13.
Since mid April we’ve seen a bit of bottom fishing among the 50 most active stocks on Twitter. We currently have four stocks with counter trend bounce signals in place. Each of those stocks have rallied to moving averages (50 and 200 day) and also down sloping trend lines. This is a point where people who are bearish on the stocks should be selling them short. This creates a battle between the longer term investors who are picking up the stocks as they fall and bears who sell every bounce off the underside of moving averages. By watching these battles we can learn about the underlying strength of the general market. If the current rally is near a turning point we would expect to see more short selling in the market. In addition, the stocks that are being sold should fall and continue their long term down trends. For a general view we like to compare a short of the S&P 500 Index (SH) against an actively managed bear fund
Below are the intensity scores for the 25 most active stocks on Twitter for the past week and month. Here is the status of the 50 most active stocks on Twitter. 70% have Twitter sentiment reading that confirm bullish chart patterns. Very few bearish stocks over the past week.
Below are charts of the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the past week and the past month. The weekly list is littered with precious metals stocks…which was to be expected. Notice the the energy ETF (XLE) is also in the weekly list. Back in 2008 energy and precious metals led the stock market downward. Is this a repeat?