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Most Bearish Stocks on Twitter

Below are charts of the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 8/13/13.

 
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Negative Divergences from Twitter Sentiment

Twitter Sentiment for Ford Stock (F)

The number of negative divergences between price and Twitter sentiment is rising. Currently 14% of the 50 most active stocks on Twitter are showing weakening sentiment as their price moves higher. I categorize negative divergences as a positive chart pattern due to the fact that most of them resolve themselves by falling back near the zero line while price trades sideways or continues upward. When this happens it’s an indication that fewer traders are buying the stock at elevated levels. It also shows fewer tweets cheering higher prices and more tweets mentioning over bought conditions, etc. The last time I saw a large number of negative divergences was in early May as the market was moving sharply higher into a peak before a period of consolidation.  At that time half of the divergences moved on to become consolidation warnings or closed buy signals (during May and June).  Others simply resolved themselves with price waiting as sentiment fell.  Over the next few weeks I’ll be watching for an increase in consolidation

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Gold Stocks and Silver Make it Back to the Bullish List

Randgold Resources (GOLD) and silver (SLV) are back on the most bullish stocks on Twitter list (for the past week).  For a sustained advance the precious metals will need to make it back to the monthly bullish list.  Another interesting point is the bank stocks are floating back to the top of the list. Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week ending 7/16/13.

 
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Another Good Week for Twitter Top 10 Portfolio

Performance of the Top Stocks on Twitter

The Twitter Top 10 portfolio bounced back this week.  It is now up 4.1% for the month and 27.7% for the year.  The gains are a result of two big winners. 3D Systems (DDD) is up over 22% and Ford (F) is up over 15%.  The losers in the portfolio are exactly what our concerns were when the list was created at the first of May.  We made explicit mention about LinkedIn (LNKD) which is down 2.74%, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) down .36%, and Coca-Cola (KO) down 4.38%.  If we were using our heads instead of a mechanical system we would have avoided these picks.  By skipping defensive sectors like Consumer Staples, Utilities, etc. that we felt were being sold by most market participants we would have bought the following stocks instead. Home Depot (HD) up 7.4%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 12.2%, and Walt Disney (DIS) down .002%.  That’s why we feel you should think for yourself rather than blindly following any investment strategy. Below is a performance chart

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Rotation to Financials and Technology

Published on May 30, 2013 by in Market Comments
Twitter Sentiment for AT&T (T)

We haven’t commented much on the general market and market internals lately due to the completely boring nature of this latest rally.  When a rally is being fueled by everyone believing it will go up due to outside forces (central banks printing money and buying debt) nothing else matters.  As a result, we haven’t been able to pinpoint anything interesting that would give you (or us) any insight into what the market is doing. Well we’re finally seeing some interesting action under the covers.  The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has given back just 3% from intra-day peak to trough and barely over 1% on closing prices.  Not very exciting, but everyone is suddenly asking if this is finally the top we’ve all been waiting for.  For some insight we like to look at individual charts and see if everything is being affected or if the selling is localized.  Broad based selling is bad. Localized selling is good…if it results in rotation…which is what we believe is causing the current sloppiness

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Twitter Top 10 Porfolio Gives a Little Back

Our Twitter Top 10 portfolio gave a little back this past week.  It is now up 3.15% for the month and 26.5% on the year.  Below are a performance chart and details of this month’s holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 5/3/2013 $LNKD 71 175.59 12466.89 173.8 12339.80 -1.02% $DDD 315 39.88 12562.20 46.4 14616.00 16.35% $F 903 13.83 12488.49 14.79 13355.37 6.94% $UPS 130 86.09 11191.70 86.83 11287.90 0.86% $HOT 173 65.21 11281.33 68.45 11841.85 4.97% $JNJ 146 85.75 12519.50 86.82 12675.72 1.25% $SBUX 203 61.87 12559.61 63.36 12862.08 2.41% $COH 216 58.25 12582.00 57.76 12476.16 -0.84% $KO 298 42.24 12587.52 42.24 12587.52 0.00% $V 68 179.54 12208.72 180.45 12270.60 0.51% Cash 229.54 229.54 Totals 122677.50 126542.5 3.15%  

 
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Twitter Top 10 Portfolio up 28% YTD

Performance of the Top 10 Bullish Stocks on Twitter

Our Twitter Top 10 portfolio had another good week.  It is up 4.62% from the 3rd of this month and up 28.34% from the beginning of the year.  3D Systems (DDD) and Ford (F) are the big winner so far this month with gains of 16% and 9% respectively.  All the other holdings are up between 1% and 4%.  Below are a performance chart and details of the current holdings. Prices as of about 2:45 Eastern on 5/17/2013. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 5/3/2013 $LNKD 71 175.59 12466.89 182.65 12968.15 4.02% $DDD 315 39.88 12562.20 46.56 14666.40 16.75% $F 903 13.83 12488.49 15.07 13608.21 8.97% $UPS 130 86.09 11191.70 88.49 11503.70 2.79% $HOT 173 65.21 11281.33 67.38 11656.74 3.33% $JNJ 146 85.75 12519.50 87.81 12820.26 2.40% $SBUX 203 61.87 12559.61 63.78 12947.34 3.09% $COH 216 58.25 12582.00 59 12744.00 1.29% $KO 298 42.24 12587.52 42.68 12718.64 1.04% $V 68 179.54 12208.72 183.52 12479.36 2.22% Cash 229.54 229.54 Totals 122677.50

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Twitter Top 10 Portfolio Outperforms Again

Twitter Stocks Performance 5/10/13

Our Twitter Top 10 Portfolio is now up 1.75% for the week and 24.8% year to date. Below is a performance chart and details for the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 5/3/2013 $LNKD 71 175.59 12466.89 172.82 12270.22 -1.58% $DDD 315 39.88 12562.20 43.49 13699.35 9.05% $F 903 13.83 12488.49 14.07 12705.21 1.74% $UPS 130 86.09 11191.70 88.24 11471.20 2.50% $HOT 173 65.21 11281.33 67.62 11698.26 3.70% $JNJ 146 85.75 12519.50 85.58 12494.68 -0.20% $SBUX 203 61.87 12559.61 62.98 12784.94 1.79% $COH 216 58.25 12582.00 59.38 12826.08 1.94% $KO 298 42.24 12587.52 41.99 12513.02 -0.59% $V 68 179.54 12208.72 178.45 12134.60 -0.61% Cash 229.54 229.54 Totals 122677.50 124827.1 1.75%

 
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Twitter Top 10 Portfolio Up 22.68% This Year

Twitter Top 10 Portfolio Performance 5/3/2013

Our Twitter Top 10 portfolio had another great month in April gaining 6.12% while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) gained 3.9%.  For the year the portfolio is up 22.68% (specifically from the close on January 4th since we make portfolio adjustments on the first Friday of every month). These gains came over a four month period where the stock market has been in a relentless up trend so we’re almost hoping for a correction just to see how the portfolio performs. The largest gains in the portfolio came from Yahoo (YHOO), Starwood Hotels (HOT), Nike (NKE), Visa (V), Ford (F), and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR).  All of them were up over 7.5% with Ford as the leader with gains over 11% in the month.  The only loser this month was VMware (VMW) which was down 3.13%. Four stocks stayed in the portfolio from last month; Ford, United Parcel Service (UPS), Starwood Hotels, and Visa.  The new additions for May are LinkedIn (LNKD), 3D Systems (DDD), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ),

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Most Bullish Stocks on Twitter

Below are the intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter.

 
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