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Consolidation Warning for Microsoft

140715msft

At the close today (7/15/14) a consolidation warning was issued for Microsoft (MSFT) from Twitter sentiment. Please note: this isn’t a sell signal simply warning that support from traders on Twitter is falling.

 
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Twitter Top 10 Still Falling

140425Twitter10

The Twitter Top 10 Portfolio continues to fall. It is down 3.82% this month lagging the S&P 500 Index (SPX) badly. The under performance is a result of three momentum stocks in the portfolio that are getting hit hard. They are Himax Tech (HIMX) down 24%, Kandi Tech (KNDI) down over 14.5%, and Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) down over 10%. Baidu (BIDU) is the only stocks out performing this month, up nearly 9%. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings.   Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $MSFT 292 39.87 11642.04 39.95 11665.40 0.20% $HIMX 1021 11.43 11670.03 8.69 8872.49 -23.97% $GTAT 761 16.90 12860.90 16.00 12176.00 -5.33% $QCOM 148 78.53 11622.44 77.45 11462.60 -1.38% $BIDU 73 149.35 10902.55 162.69 11876.37 8.93% $KNDI 687 14.08 9672.96 12.02 8257.74 -14.63% $F 724 16.13 11678.12 15.78 11424.72 -2.17% $AA 925 12.63 11682.75 13.27 12274.75 5.07% $K 183 63.77 11669.91 66.61 12189.63 4.45% $GMCR 113 102.99 11637.87 92.40

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StockTwits Top 10 Recovers

140425Twits10

The StockTwits Top 10 Portfolio recovered this week. It is now even with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the year. The recovery is mostly a result of the out performance of Micron Technology (MU) up over 12% and a good bounce in SunPower (SPWR) up nearly 7% this month.  Currently the only laggard is JPMorgan Chase (JPM) down over 6.5%. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $AMD 2712 4.01 10875.12 4.11 11146.32 2.49% $MSFT 237 39.87 9449.19 39.98 9475.26 0.28% $MU 419 22.58 9461.02 25.43 10655.17 12.62% $AA 881 12.63 11127.03 13.3 11717.30 5.30% $F 587 16.13 9468.31 15.82 9286.34 -1.92% $Z 104 91.00 9464.00 94.91 9870.64 4.30% $T 282 33.55 9461.10 34.5 9729.00 2.83% $JPM 158 59.81 9449.98 55.85 8824.30 -6.62% $GE 410 26.13 10713.30 26.65 10926.50 1.99% $SPWR 296 31.93 9451.28 34.08 10087.68 6.73% Cash 56.56 56.56 Totals 98976.89 101775.07 2.83%

 
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Twitter Top 10 Continues to Lag

140417Twitter10

The Twitter Top 10 Portfolio continues to lag the market this month. It is still down 2.4% while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is essentially flat.  The stocks that are dragging down the portfolio are Himax Tech (HIMX) down over 20% and Kandi Tech (KNDI) down almost 17%.  These are two leftover momentum stocks that didn’t fall out of the portfolio at the first of the month. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings.   Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $MSFT 292 39.87 11642.04 40.04 11691.68 0.43% $HIMX 1021 11.43 11670.03 9.12 9311.52 -20.21% $GTAT 761 16.90 12860.90 16.29 12396.69 -3.61% $QCOM 148 78.53 11622.44 81.22 12020.56 3.43% $BIDU 73 149.35 10902.55 156.77 11444.21 4.97% $KNDI 687 14.08 9672.96 11.69 8031.03 -16.97% $F 724 16.13 11678.12 16.07 11634.68 -0.37% $AA 925 12.63 11682.75 13.49 12478.25 6.81% $K 183 63.77 11669.91 66.29 12131.07 3.95% $GMCR 113 102.99 11637.87 98.55 11136.15 -4.31% Cash 116.05 116.05 Totals 115155.62

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StockTwits Top 10 Follows Market

140417StockTwits10

The StockTwits Top 10 portfolio is performing in line with the market so far this month. Both the portfolio and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are basically flat from the first Friday of April.  The laggards in the portfolio are SunPower (SPWR) down 15.25%, JP Morgan (JPM) down 7.56%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down 6.98%. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings.   Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $AMD 2712 4.01 10875.12 3.73 10115.76 -6.98% $MSFT 237 39.87 9449.19 40.1 9503.70 0.58% $MU 419 22.58 9461.02 23.81 9976.39 5.45% $AA 881 12.63 11127.03 13.46 11858.26 6.57% $F 587 16.13 9468.31 16.07 9433.09 -0.37% $Z 104 91.00 9464.00 95.99 9982.96 5.48% $T 282 33.55 9461.10 36.15 10194.30 7.75% $JPM 158 59.81 9449.98 55.29 8735.82 -7.56% $GE 410 26.13 10713.30 26.72 10955.20 2.26% $SPWR 296 31.93 9451.28 27.06 8009.76 -15.25% Cash 56.56 56.56 Totals 98976.89 98821.80 -0.16%

 
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Twitter Top 10 Follows Market Down

The Twitter Top 10 portfolio is down 2.91% since the new picks last week. This is slightly worse performance than the S&P 500 Index (SPX) which is down about 2.4%.  The under performance is mostly a result of Kandi Technologies (KNDI) which is down nearly 12%. Six of the stocks in the portfolio are performing better than SPX as the portfolio rotated to larger cap stocks when momentum stocks failed. Below is a performance chart and details of the current holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $MSFT 292 39.87 11642.04 39.35 11490.20 -1.30% $HIMX 1021 11.43 11670.03 10.61 10832.81 -7.17% $GTAT 761 16.90 12860.90 16.26 12373.86 -3.79% $QCOM 148 78.53 11622.44 78.11 11560.28 -0.53% $BIDU 73 149.35 10902.55 149.02 10878.46 -0.22% $KNDI 687 14.08 9672.96 12.40 8518.80 -11.93% $F 724 16.13 11678.12 15.74 11395.76 -2.42% $AA 925 12.63 11682.75 12.40 11470.00 -1.82% $K 183 63.77 11669.91 65.33 11955.39 2.45% $GMCR 113 102.99 11637.87 99.28 11218.64 -3.60% Cash 116.05

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StockTwits Top 10 Falls with Market

The StockTwits Top 10 portfolio continues to fall with the market. It is down 3.75% from last week’s new picks. The slide in relation to the S&P 500 Index (SPX) isn’t as severe as the March carnage due to some rotation to large cap and more defensive stocks.  Over half the stocks are down less than about 2%.  These stocks are holding up better than SPX. The one large laggard this month is SunPower (SPWR) which is down nearly 16% which accounts for much of the under performance. Below is a performance chart and details of the current month’s holdings. Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss 4/4/2014 $AMD 2712 4.01 10875.12 3.76 10197.12 -6.23% $MSFT 237 39.87 9449.19 39.45 9349.65 -1.05% $MU 419 22.58 9461.02 21.27 8912.13 -5.80% $AA 881 12.63 11127.03 12.46 10977.26 -1.35% $F 587 16.13 9468.31 15.82 9286.34 -1.92% $Z 104 91.00 9464.00 89.75 9334.00 -1.37% $T 282 33.55 9461.10 35.19 9923.58 4.89% $JPM 158 59.81 9449.98

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Most Active Stocks on Twitter

Below are the intensity scores for the most active stocks on Twitter for the week and month ended 4/8/14.

 
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Most Bullish Stocks on StockTwits

Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores of the most bullish stocks on StockTwits for the week and month ended 4/8/14. Notice that neither the weekly or the monthly list had 25 stocks. This is another illustration of the damage done to sentiment in the most active stocks on StockTwits. Another thing to notice is the momentum stocks have been replaced by companies that many perceive as safety stocks.

 
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Broad Based Selling Without Fear

Published on April 5, 2014 by in Market Comments

Last weekend I mentioned that the stock market was undergoing rotation, however, no real fear was associated with the selling.  This week we have a market that looks like it may have started some broad based selling, but again without much fear from market participants.  During the week most of the indicators that I follow strengthened. Then came Friday, which showed an entirely different character than I’ve seen in a long time.  It reversed the gains in our internal indicators and also created some concerning chart patterns in individual stocks. As you know, I try to give a few things each week to watch as the most important clue to the direction of the market.  This week what I’ll be watching most closely is the action of the stocks that had held up while momentum, bio tech, and social media stocks were being ravaged by selling. On Friday, many of these stocks were sold aggressively along with stocks that have been weak since the first of March. Google (GOOG) is

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